UFC 148 Predictions

After what feels like an eternity, the UFC is finally giving its fans the most anticipated rematch in the sport's history this weekend when Anderson Silva looks to defend his title a record 10th straight time against trash talking Chael Sonnen. All fans remember what happened 2 summers ago, when Sonnen man handled Silva for 23 straight minutes before finding himself caught in a triangle forcing him to tap out, but will this time be different?Although the card loses a lot with Faber/Barao moving to UFC 149, it's still a pretty impressive event loaded with previous title holders, title contenders, and legends of the sport. Below are my predictions on 5 of this weekends fights.

Chad Mendes over Cody McKenzie via decision:  Mendes was on a complete roll before losing to Jose Aldo, which hardly is black mark on your resume. "Money" had won 6 in a row, most of which were more against complete fighters than McKenzie. For Cody, this fight represents an enormous jump in class, and I'm just not sure he is ready for it. His guillotine submissions are notorious, but Mendes should be able to avoid the submission and work him for the duration. Mendes isn't a finisher, so I like this fight going the distance.

Dyon Hung Kim over Demian Maia via decision: Kim has won 4 of his last 5, with impressive performances against Nate Diaz and Amir Sadollah. He was KO'ed by Condit, but outside of that he has looked good of late. Maia has lost to Weidman and Munoz in the last calendar year and has never really become the "contender" many thought he would be. His outstanding submission skills have been on vacation since 2009 and you have to wonder if he is outmatched against the best of the weight class.

Cung Lee over Patrick Cote via KO: I had a real hard time with this one. Both fighters are hungry for the victory with them losing a combined 5 of their last 6 fights. Both legit strikers, you would probably favor the much younger Cote in that category. But sometimes, you have to give the edge to the legend who wants to put a stamp on his legacy with an impressive win over Cote.

Forrest Griffin over Tito Ortiz via KO/TKO: You have to hand it Ortiz, he's been active with this being his 6th fight in less than 3 years. The problem is, he has lost 4 of them, and in most cases he has been destroyed. The win against Bader surprised everyone (including Bader when I spoke to him this past September), but I am not convinced that this was part of Ortiz's comeback trail. I look for a motivated Griffin to pick up where he left off the last time these two met, which is a very advantageous position.

Chael Sonnen over Anderson Silva via decision: For the record, I will be rooting hard for Silva. I was never a huge fan of his antics, but after rewatching some of his title defenses and recently watching the documentary "Like Water" I have a new found respect and admiration for him and his brilliance. But after hearing Silva's comments recently regarding what he intends to do to Sonnen this Saturday, I couldn't help but think Sonnen had officially entered and effected Silva's psyche. I am a little surprised that Vegas has this as Sonnen +240, which almost makes me think that people really do think Silva is going to break everyone of his teeth. Although I am hoping that's the case, I think Sonnen will be the one backing up his words on Saturday.

Check out the fights this Saturday at 10 PM and also be sure to check out the prelims on FX beginning at 8:00 EST.

Navigating the Newport Folk Festival

I've been looking forward to seeing the Newport Folk Festival schedule with both excitement and dread.  I'm on record as saying this is the best festival lineup I've ever seen, so obviously I was going to have to make some tough choices I didn't want to make.  But after finally seeing the schedule, it's not THAT bad.

A few months ago I made a Top 5 bands I want to see at Newport list and although it's nearly impossible to stick to a plan, here is how I'm going to try and navigate the Newport Folk Festival and how I'm going to try and see them all:

11:30am - 12:15pm
Being that I'm going to be getting two kids ready to go to the festival and we'll have to set up our spot at the Fort Stage I'll probably be starting my day with some Brown Bird as we set up and then shooting over to the Harbor Stage for Apache Relay.  I've been listening to their American Nomad album a lot leading up to the festival and I'm really enjoying it.

12:30pm - 1:30pm
I'll probably try to stay at the Harbor Stage for the beginning of Spirit Family Reunion.  If nothing else, from what I heard of them so far, my 2 year old will stomp and clap along with them.  I will leave to head back to the Fort Stage for The Preservation Hall Jazz Band for the rest of their set.  I've seen them a few times already and they are a lot of fun.  And I'd imagine we'll be getting our first of many Jim James sightings during that set.

1:40pm - 4:20pm
DAMN YOU NEWPORT FOLK FESTIVAL!!!! This is by far the most painful part of the weekend.  Deer Tick was my #2 band I want to see at NFF but I really want to see Alabama Shakes.  With two young kids coming this year I'm not going to get to see Deer Tick at the Newport Blues Cafe or that would have made my decision here a little easier.  But alas, I'll be high-tailing it from PJHB to see Deer Tick from 1:40 to 2:15 and then booking over to Alabama Shakes for the remainder of their set.  That's probably the best I can do there.  Honey Honey gets the shaft here from me but luckily it looks like I'll have another chance on Sunday.  Immediately following Alabama Shakes I'm going to hop back and forth between First Aid Kit and Sharon Van Etten.  And honestly, my goal is to at least hear First Aid Kit do Emmylou and Sharon Van Etten do Leonard.  If I can pull that off before going to see Dawes then I will high five myself.

4:25pm - 6:05pm
From Dawes I'm heading over to see Blind Pilot.  Last year I tried to keep popping back and forth through the tunnel between the Harbor and Quad Stage to see Head and the Heart and Middle Brother.  I might do that to catch some Iron and Wine.  I have a longer history with Iron and Wine but I'm leaning Blind Pilot these days.  After those two sets I'll probably try and catch 10-15 minutes of the Guthrie Family Reunion before getting back to the Fort Stage.

6:05 - 7:30
MY MORNING JACKET!!!!

11:30am - 1:40pm
After setting up again for the day I'd like to hop over to the Harbor Stage.  I've been listening to Deep Dark Woods on Spotify and I'd like to see them as well and make my only appearance at the Museum stage for Honey Honey for a few songs before trying to catch the last half of Trampled By Turtles.

1:40pm - 3:00pm
Definitely want to see The New Multitudes.  I'll see their whole set and then catch the tail end of Charles Bradley.

3:00pm - 5:15pm
The second worst conflict of the weekend for me.  The hop to the Fort Stage to the Quad stage is not easy enough to risk going from Charles Bradley to Gary Clark Jr and back to Head and the Heart so I might have to skip Gary Clark Jr. entirely unfortunately.  I want to see as much Head and the Heart as I can but them and Of Monsters and Men overlap by 10 minutes.  So being that I did see three songs from Head and the Heart last year, I'll probably ditch out on the end of them to go see Of Monsters and Men in their entirety.

5:15pm - 7:30pm
If the situation presents itself I'd like to see some Conor Oberst but I might just be content to head over to the Harbor Stage and lock down my spot for Tallest Man on Earth.  From there maybe I'll catch a little Jackson Browne if my kids are cooperating after what will be a long weekend for them.  Catching a water taxi before the rush might out weigh trying to hear The Pretender.

I'd put my chances of executing this plan at close to 0% but it's still going to be fun to try.

2012 NBA Draft - Two I Like, Two I don't Like

I hate the NBA yet I love the NBA draft.  And not for the reasons someone like Bill Simmons likes it with the weird suits and awkward handshakes, I love it because it's kind of a goodbye to the college players that I enjoyed watching before they become irrelevant to me in the NBA.

Despite there being only one potential "can't miss" super star there is a lot of depth and with the lack of international players, I'm familiar with almost everyone that is projected to be drafted.

I'm not going to do a mock draft because on sites like CBS and ESPN they are put together because those guys have access to GMs and scouts.  I'm going to give you some players that I think are going to be overvalued and undervalued based on where I see they are projected to go.

Players projected to go too high:

Bradley Beal - SG - Florida
I like Beal as a player, I really do.  But seeing him go as high as 3 overall is ridiculous to me.  The era of a Dwayne Wade or Kobe Bryant being the best player on an NBA Champion is just about over.  We're entering the era of the athletic SF and PF.  Look at the best SGs to be drafted the last few years: Klay Thompson, Marshon Brooks, Evan Turner, Jordan Crawford, James Harden and Tyreke Evans.  They are all complimentary players.  And I get a SG might have to be taken higher based on the quality of the draft but I don't see a huge difference between the 2-20 pick in this draft.

Dion Waiters - SG - Syracuse
I see him going 7 to Golden State in the ESPN and CBS mocks.  Golden State has two picks in the 1st round and if I'm them I hope Drummond falls to 7 and then take a Jared Cunningham with the 30th or 35th pick.  I honestly don't see that much of a difference between the two.  I guess I'm still in the belief that unless you're a playoff team who traded in to the Top 10, if you have a Top 10 pick you are not a very good team and should still be aiming to draft someone who will be the best player on your team at some point.

Players projected to be drafted too low:

Andrew Nicholson - PF - St. Bonaventure
In any sport it seems like GMs and scouts fall too much in love with a player's workouts and not enough of what they did in college.  Andrew Nicholson might lack a little of the athletism you would like in an NBA PF but he is a winner.  He took a lowly A-10 program, put them on his back and took them to the NCAA Tournament.  You can't put a measurable on that.  And not only that, he improved himself from a guy who took zero three pointers in his first two years to a guy who took 53 of them in his senior year and hit 43% of them.  The team that gets him in the early 20s is getting a solid player.

Jae Crowder - SF - Marquette
If GMs drafted solely on effort, Jae Crowder would be a top 3 pick.  Of course he's only a 6'4-6'5 SF which this day in age is too small for a SF but he's solidly built and has over a 6'9" wingspan and is capable of guarding three positions.  He's big on the glass for his size and he is always in a position for steals.  He's a capable scorer and shooter (35% from three).  He's projected in the mid-to-late 2nd round.  That guy can play on my team any day.

I'm Ready to Start Panicking - Mets Fan Style

My hiatus is over.  I didn't really have time to post as my wife and I welcomed our second kid in to the world.  But I'm back just in time to start panicking over the Mets.

I know I could be overreacting right now as a Mets fan but, I am now in fear of Johan Santana's no-hitter on June 1st being the catalyst in the wheels coming off on their surprising early season.

I shouldn't say the no hitter is the reason, but it's Terry Collins' handling of the pitching staff after the no-hitter.  Johan Santana is a creature of habit.  I completely understand that off of his surgery and 134 pitches you would want to do something to lighten his load, but giving him extra rest was not the way to do it.  By giving him extra rest and shuffling the pitching staff around it created a domino effect that resulted in losing 6 of their last 7.  Just say Santana is on a 110-115 pitch count for each game.  Have him start on normal rest but have him only throw 90-95 pitches.

Lets take a look at the last two series:

June 5th - @Washington - Lost 7-6 in 12
This was Chris Young's first start back from the same surgery Santana had.  As a means to push Santana back the Mets opted to go with a 6 man rotation and start Jeremy Hefner the next night.  So not only was the bullpen shorthanded with Hefner slated to start tomorrow, Jon Rauch had an elbow issue and was unavailable to pitch.  So 5 man bullpen.  My question   Of course it goes 12 innings and the bullpen blows leads in the 8th, 10th and 12th.  Knowing what we know now that the Mets would send down Pedro Beato and keep Jeremy Hefner up when the rotation stabilizes, wouldn't it have been nice to have Hefner available in the pen to eat some more innings instead of stretching Frank Francisco and Elvin Ramirez into second innings?

June 6th - @Washington - Lost 5-3
Hefner didn't pitch terribly after allowing a three-run homer in the 1st but this is where Santana should have been pitching on regular rest.  Based on how he's been this year you'd like to think he would have done as well or better than Hefner did in his 6 innings.

June 7th - @Washington - Won 3-1
Thank god for R.A. Dickey.  On regular rest by the way.

June 8th - June 10th - @ Yankees - Swept all 3 games
It's hard to assume this series would have gone much differently than a sweep even if the Mets staff was on regular rest.  The Friday night game was a foregone conclusion.  Anyone who expected anything from Santana was misguided.  Long rest = disaster for him.  It would have been Niese's turn and there was probably nothing he could have done with the way Kuroda pitched.  Gee on Saturday battled despite not having his best stuff and who knows what Chris Young would have given you on Sunday.

The point is, this is a brutal stretch of schedule for the Mets and as fun as this season has been so far, Mets fans know how fragile it is.  By babying Santana too much, I feel they probably cost themselves a 3-3 stretch in these which is a lot less damaging than 1-5.

America's Got Talent! Or does it?

I'll start by saying that I am as big of a Howard Stern fan as you can be without being part of the wack pack. I have listened to Sirius exclusively for the last 5 years and wondered how I went without Stern and company for the several years prior to that. That being said, my expectations were not extremely high going into his new gig as a judge on America's Got Talent because quite frankly, the show doesn't interest me. On top of that, the incessant discussion of his addition to AGT has made his radio show borderline unlistenable for the last few months. That being said, this Monday night I sat down with my wife to watch the inaugural episode and I must say, I still have no interest in it.

I think the problem with the show is not the judges, the format or even the extremely dull host Nick Cannon. The problem, at least so far, is the talent. Where other shows compete at one talent (DWTS, American Idol, The Voice), America's Got Talent opens its arms for various talents, which seems to then produce very mediocre talent. The real problem with mediocre talent, is that when someone shows up that has even a shred of chops, they laud them with praise as if we were witnessing something special on stage. To conclude the first episode a father and daughter act sang a very average version of James Taylor's "you've got a friend." The judges gave a standing ovation and Howard went as far as to call them "perfection." Really? You would have thought Sonny & Cher had come back and graced the stage. In fact, two episodes in, I haven't seen anything that seems worth the price of admission, let alone worth a million dollars.

When it comes to the judges, the surprise to me is that Howard Stern is not all that interesting. His comments/criticisms often seem too rehearsed and not witty enough. Howie Mandel, who obviously has more experience with this than Stern, seems much more comfortable and therefor funny, in his judging role. The ratings are down from last year by 30%, but this year they decided to go up against Dancing With the Stars, which is not a small endeavor. In fairness, the season is still young and I do expect both Stern and the talent to get better. I plan on giving it at least 5 episodes before hitting my buzzer.

Best Live Music Venues

As this summer approaches, I find myself getting entrenched in concert mode. In addition to attending the aforementioned Newport Folk Festival and the soon to be announced lineup for the Xponential music festival, I have also gotten tickets for Radiohead, Marillion, Jason Mraz, and hopefully there is more to come. But I have also spent some time reflecting (not really) on the countless concerts I have been too and wide variety of venues (good and bad) that have hosted me. So I decided to take a look back at my concert history and rank the top 10 venues. The only criteria I used is that I had to have been there at least twice, which unfortunately excludes many venues in cities other than Philadelphia and New York.  I also excluded any festival grounds (sorry New Orleans Fairgrounds and Fort Adams!) because that is a whole different concert experience.

10. Johnny Brenda's (Philadelphia, PA) - This venue boasts one of the best microbrew selections and also one of the smallest stages I have ever seen. Overflowing with character and offers a great balcony if you want to be literally on top of the performer. Acts I've seen include Matt Pond PA, A.C. Newman, Rhett Miller

9. House of Blues (Chicago, IL & Atlantic City, NJ) - I decided to combine these two cities just so I could get H.O.B on the list. An obviously iconic place provides a great concert atmosphere, albeit slightly generic. Guster, Matt Pond PA, Maroon 5

8. Theater of the Living Arts (Philadelphia, PA) - A much improved venue from when I originally started going there 10 years ago, the TLA gets some of the best acts in Philly and now offers improved balcony seating. Knock on the TLA is that occasionally alcohol is not allowed on the main floor which sucks. John Mayer, Jason Mraz, Martin Sexton, Portugal.The Man, Mike Doughty, Sufjan Stevens, Flight of the Conchords, Gomez

7. Central Park Summer Stage (New York, NY) - This doesn't need much explaining, great music + central park = awesome. Although I am only two for two at Summer Stage, one of those happens to be a top 5 concert of all time. Guster, Ben Folds, New Pornographers

6. Tin Angel (Philadelphia, PA) - If you are looking for an intimate concert experience, this is it. Every show feels like its happening in your living room and therefore is very predisposed to audience participation and stage banter. I could really make a case for this to be higher on the list because I have never had a bad experience there but it does feel a bit too small at times. Ari Hest, Peter Himmelman, Ellis Paul, Richard Schindell, Grant Lee-Phillips

5. Jones Beach Theater (Wantagh, NY) - This is a nostalgic pick for me, because I haven't been there much in the last 10 years but I can confidently say that is the best open air theater I have ever been too (no, I haven't been to Red Rocks yet). Friendly acoustics, a great breeze, and a beautiful backdrop have made average shows seem much better than average. It is a dry venue and I despise the extra seating added in 1998, but where else can you see Neil Diamond, Iron Maiden, and Dave Matthews Band all in the same summer? James Taylor, Steely Dan, Hootie & the Blowfish, Tom Petty, Rush, Dave Matthews Band

4. Bowery Ballroom (New York, NY) - Ahhh, the Bowery Ballroom. Home to some of the best concert memories of my 20's. I really love everything about this place. Great size, acoustics, and pre-show drinking (bar downstairs is great) make this a sure bet for a fun night out. Not sure if the area around the BB has improved, because that would only make it better. Sloan, Vertical Horizon, Del Amitri

3. The Stephen Talkhouse (Amagansett, NY) - There are way more shows that I kicked myself for not going to then shows I have been too here, which is partly because this place is so much fun and also hard to get to. Another intimate venue, but unlike the Tin Angel this place feels more like you are crashing a party. Small, but friendly bar and a handful of tables if you come early or pay for the premium tickets (hint, its worth it). Martin Sexton, Kathleen Edwards, October Project

2. The Bottom Line* (New York, NY) - Outside of my father, if I had to point to my biggest musical influence growing up it was definitely The Bottom Line. Going to this place as a teenager made me feel connected to music and like I was part of a scene. Fantastic layout, terrific sound and incredible french fries...If I had a dollar for every memory in this place, I would have several dollars. Ellis Paul, Moxy Fruvous, Weird Al Yankovic, Buster Poindexter, Jude Cole, Peter Himmelman, Nitty Gritty Dirt Band

1. World Cafe Live (Philadelphia, PA) - Established in 2004, the World Cafe Live has been the most integral part of my live music scene ever since. In a way, it picked up where the Bottom Line left off in the late 90's (other venues filled in during the 6 year interim). The WCL did everything right when they opened and because of that, other venues can only hope to match the various components that make this place great. There is an upstairs, for more acoustic and slightly more obscure acts, that also has a great bar and terrific food. The downstairs is pristine, a beautiful bar, perfect floor space, and an incredibly neat balcony where you can actually purchase cushions on a couch for a show. Top it all off with free shows every Friday sponsored by WXPN (Counting Crows, John Legend, Joe Jackson, Andrew Bird, The National) and it makes sense why I have been there close to 50 times in less than 10 years. Mike Doughty, Bob Schneider, Justin Currie, Rhett Miller, Josh Ritter, Josh Rouse, Joe Henry, Darius Rucker

Venues that just missed or I have only been to once: The Wetlands* (New York, NY), Fez Under Time Cafe* (New York, NY), Scottish Rite Theater (Collingswood, NJ), BB King Blues Club (New York, NY), Newport Blues Cafe (Newport, RI), Irving Plaza (New York, NY) & The Mann Center (Philadelphia, PA)
* indicates venue is no longer open

The Diamond Rugs album makes me feel ________

One day I would like to walk in to one of those dark neighborhood bars at two o' clock in the afternoon, go to the jukebox and put this album on from beginning to end.  You know the type of bar, one with those shuffleboard tables with sawdust on it and only like two or three locals in it.  I want to sit at the bar line up six pints in front of me and just go to work on them as the rest of the album plays out.