Tuesday, December 20, 2011

College Bowl Picks - 2nd Batch

Here is the next batch of games to be played during this week:

Florida International vs. Marshall
Line: Florida International -4

Florida International clearly has the geographical edge here by being in Florida and a trip that is roughly 10 hours closer than the Thundering Herd fans will have to travel.

The game looks pretty even. They actually both won at Louisville earlier in the year but looking at some stats that I deem important, FIU takes care of the ball a little better, runs it a little better and D's up a little better.

When I was in college, if Buffalo made it's first bowl game ever and they won on a last second field goal I'd kick myself for not going. The following year if they made another bowl I'd want to recreate what I missed and more. That's the situation FIU fans are in this year. So based on my reasons above plus the easy trip for FIU fans. I'm liking them in this game.

X Factor - I'm not going to pretend I've ever seen him kick but FIU's kicker is 21-25 on the year including 5-7 over 40. For a college kicker that's pretty solid.

The pick: FIU -4

TCU vs. Louisiana Tech
Line: TCU -10

It's so easy to want to just take TCU. They are clearly the more superior team. But how does a team with BCS Bowl aspirations gear up for the Poinsettia Bowl against a WAC school?

I'm not going to lie and say I'm very familiar with Louisiana Tech but looking in to them and trying to find some real reasons to pick them, I was able to find a few. Louisiana Tech can pick balls off. They were their in the FBs with 20 INTs with 5 of them going for TDs. Two of the picks were against Case Keenum who only had 5 all year. So Casey Pachall only having thrown 6 picks on the year doesn't worry me. Chances are La Tech will get their hands on one.

Looking at La Tech from a betting aspect they are 7-0 ATS as an underdog this year (4-0 as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points). They are 4-1 ATS in non-conference games (10-2 for the season). TCU on the other hand is only 4-6 ATS as a favorite.

I've done it. I've convinced myself. I'm banking on TCU overlooking this game and just anxious to get into the Big 12. It's not as if any of TCUs best players are seniors. QB, top 2 RBs, team leading WR and pass rusher are all back for the next year or two.

The pick: Louisiana Tech +10

Arizona State vs. Boise State
Line: Boise State -14

Like the game above I question Boise State's motivation for this game after being snubbed by the BCS again. But unlike TCU I believe Boise will be sending Kellen Moore out on a high note. Chris Petersen has been one of, if not the most vocal coach about the BCS mess. I believe he'll get Boise up to show the college football world that they got screwed with a monster blowout of Arizona State.

Arizona State is a mess. They fired their coach and arguably their best defensive player might not play. Their lone bright spot in the QB but Boise defends the pass pretty well. I just can't make any arguments for them

The pick: Boise State -14

Overall Record: 1-2

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