Wednesday, August 27, 2014

2014 New York Jets - ESPN's Dumb Game-By-Game Predictions
Using Advanced Football Analytics (formerly NFL Stats), ESPN's projection for the Jets upcoming season is a 7-9 record.  As a Jets fan this is not something that is particularly enjoyable to read, yet at the same time, if someone asked me if I would be surprised if the Jets finished 7-9 I'd say no.

It's not so much the record that bothers me.  It's when I looked at it game by game that the ridiculousness started to stand out.  Look at some of these scores:

-The Jets are going to be outscored 63-17 in their 10th and 11th games at home against Pittsburgh and then in Buffalo?  They are more than capable of losing those games but that doesn't sound right to me.

-Did Advanced Football Analytics predict and some devastating injuries before the Nov. 9 game vs. Pittsburgh?  I thought that was a pretty favorable part of their schedule.  In their last 4 games they have Minnesota, Tennessee and Miami who are not good football teams and it's their game against New England at home.  Not only were they predicted to lose those games; they are predicted to allow over 30 points to both Tennessee and Miami.  3 out of 4 of those games are on the road.  I'm not saying they will win any of them but all of a sudden they are going to go from giving up 17 points a game in their first 9 games to giving up almost 30 in their last 7?  And in those 9 games they average giving up 17 points a game they are play Green Bay, Chicago Detroit, Denver and New England in there and in their last 7 they play Buffalo, Miami (twice) and Tennessee.  These don't make any sense.

I hate game by game projections before a season starts.  I get that the guys who write the season previews have to provide content but it's probably the most useless information you can provide.

*the image to the left will link you to ESPN's NFL Preview

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