A Week 14 Jets Rant - With a Chart!

Remember last month when the Jets beat New Orleans and were 5-4 with a bye week and the lowly 3-7 Buffalo Bills coming up next?  That was a good time.

Even though Jets fans were riding high after the New Orleans win, signs the wheels were about to come off the season actually started that week.  It was the week they put the training wheels on Geno Smith.  The Jets had some brutal games against New England, Tennessee, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati but something about them was oddly watchable.  They were throwing the ball down the field.  Since the Cincinnati game in Week 8, Geno Smith hasn't completed double digit passes in a game.  The Jets defense is pretty good but not good enough to overcome three and outs over and over again. 

I'm on record as a Mark Sanchez apologist but I was slowly getting on board with Geno Smith a little bit.  It was probably more on board with Marty Mornhinweg but either way, the Jets offense was moving the ball a little.  It was encouraging.  But when they overachieved to the point where the playoffs were a possibility they then decided that they weren't going to let Geno blow it for them.  But that's exactly what they did.  Geno can say all the right things in the media but the Jets shattered his confidence and he's now a historically bad quarterback.  He's broken and I don't want to watch him any more.  The sweet line graph below shows the decrease in first downs the Jets are getting per game.  The line indicates when Geno's training wheels were put on.

The question now becomes what do the Jets owe to their fans going forward?  We're coming up to Week 14 now and Geno Smith has started every game.  If the Jets haven't seen all they need to see from this guy, then I am very concerned.  I'm not going to say I want to see Matt Simms start or I want to see David Garrard start since none of them are the long term answer either, so I'll just say I want to see Not Geno Smith as the Jets QB.  They've thrown up three consecutive "no competes" and it's very hard to watch.  I just need to see something different.  From a franchise standpoint I get why they have to start Geno Smith but if they have to do it, can they please open up the playbook again?  If we have to keep watching this guy, then can we at least see the ball travel more than 6 yards in the air?  I can take the turnovers to an extent if we're trying to push the ball down field.  If the Jets are still evaluating Geno Smith can they at least evaluate him by letting him do something?

I know John Idzik is trying build something here but at the same time don't the fans deserve a somewhat watchable product?

A Few Hundred Words on the 2012 New York Jets

I'm prepared to talk about the Jets 2012 season now.

I've mentioned in the past that in all my years of being a Jets fan, this might have been my least favorite.  At least during the 1-15 debacle I was a freshmen in college with my whole life ahead of me.  My distaste for this season doesn't come from Mark Sanchez regressing terribly, a 6-10 record, putting up less than 20 points a game, having the best defensive player in the league injured for the year or still not having a legitimate pass rusher.  It was because of the media.  Record wise, the Jets had done the same or worse than 2012 on three other occasions already.  It's fine.  It happens.  The one thing that got under my skin all year was that the Jets were a "circus."  Granted, they did sign up for extra media attention when Woody wanted to bring in Tim Tebow but I think the public and media perception of how much Tim Tebow SHOULD have been used overshadowed how much the Jets planned on using him.  Prior to the season people were predicting that Tebow was here to eventually unseat Sanchez but the Jets never said that.  They emphasized that Sanchez was the starter and Tebow was the back up and there would be a package of plays for Tebow that would be sprinkled in.  Rex also said that Tebow can be used lightly or up to 20 plays a game depending on the situation.  Everyone seemed to run with that "20" number.  I'm sure you can point to Rex starting Greg McElroy over Tebow in Week 16 as mishandling the Tim Tebow situation but if you look at it objectively, you could not start Tebow in Week 16.  It was abundantly clear by that point that Tebow was not coming back next year.  Personally I don't think you could have risked Tebow having any chance for success in a meaningless game.  That would have caused an even bigger uproar.  But at no point in the season did I think the Jets lied about Tebow's role.  I think it was blown out of proportion because he was Tim Tebow.  If they never made that trade and Drew Stanton was sitting as the #2 then Sanchez would have been benched weeks before he was.  The Jets had a package for Tim Tebow and they know he can't run a pro style offense.

I understand Rex has kind of made his bed with all the negative press the Jets get but other than his off base statement about how this could be the best team he's ever coached, Rex was very tame this year.  He was still media friendly but without any bold predictions and rarely talking playoffs or looking ahead.  I do believe that Rex Ryan will be a head coach again and he will have learned from his mistakes here and be successful (Spoiler Alert! I don't think he's back next year.)

Touching on what actually happened on the field this year, I want to blurb about a few players:

-Shonn Greene: Another yawn of a 1000 yard season.  I'm ready to move on from him.  I like Bilal Powell better (although I don't think he's a workhorse either) and I'm a believer in not spending a lot of money on RBs.  The Jets don't have a lot of flexibility with the cap so I'd task my new GM with finding a cheap alternative to pair with Powell.

-Braylon Edwards: Despite having zero success since he left the Jets, I always said that the Jets picked wrong when they kept Santonio Holmes over Edwards.  I view Santonio Holmes as a glorified slot receiver masquerading as a #1.  When healthy I like what Edwards brings to the table.  Sure he drops a few too many but he also makes some tough catches as well.  I'd take this opportunity to bring him back on the cheap.  They still need help at WR but going in to next season with Holmes, Edwards and Jeremy Kerley as their Top 3, for some reason I wouldn't hate that based on their cap restraints.

-Mike DeVito: He's an unrestricted free agent now and I'm going to miss him if he goes.  I was surprised to learn he made 2.5 million this year and he earned every penny.  He is the blue collar guy that the Jets defense needs.  Not flashy but he is really solid against the run.

-Quinton Coples: It was tough to see Chandler Jones have 6 sacks halfway through the season and going from confused by Seattle's pick to wishing Bruce Irvin lasted just one more spot.  But although the Jets still desperately need a guy who can get to the QB on his own, I'm currently okay with Coples.  He showed me flashes this year and surprisingly led the team in sacks this year (only 5.5 but still).  I'm not getting too excited because apparently he has a history of lacking motivation but so far so good.

-Kyle Wilson:  It confuses me why he is getting such a pass.  I know the Jets some how ended up the year with solid numbers against the pass but I can't honestly say I think Wilson played well.  He's not developing at all and I don't care what defensive back metrics you can throw at me, just watching him week in and week out, he seems to get toasted once or twice a game.  I'm holding him to a higher regard than I should because of his draft status and maybe that's not fair anymore but if Antonio Cromartie or Darelle Revis leave one day, I don't think he's the answer as a starter.

So far in to the new year, the Jets let go of Mike Tannenbaum which was definitely the right now and they gave Rex a reprieve right now.  I am on record as saying that I would like their to be a way for Rex to coach the team next year but if the GM goes, the coach has to go too.  It's not fair to the new GM to not allow him to bring in his own coach.  What I believe is happening is that Woody will hire a GM and Rex will be interviewing with him to keep his job.  And personally I don't think Rex Ryan will be back.  And if he is back, I won't be able to shake the notion that we hired the wrong guy as GM and he was only hired because of his willingness to let this situation happen.  It's a tricky situation as a Jets fan.

The beauty of the NFL is that it's not impossible to change a team from a 6-10 record to 10-6 record in one year.  So hopefully the Jets hire a good ringmaster to bring the big top down on all this circus garbage.

See?  Circus analogies are annoying.

I'm There. It's Time to Blow Up The Jets

It's that time for another Jets rant.  I was going to do this earlier but I needed some time to collect my thoughts or else this would have been more of a ramble.

So I've finally come to the point where I'm ready to blow it up.  It's a hard conclusion for me to come to because I do believe Rex Ryan will be a pretty successful head coach in the NFL.  Unfortunately if he does, his stop with the Jets will be the place he made the mistakes he will learn from.  If I'm making a pie chart...screw it I'm making a pie chart:

As you can see, I place most of the blame on Mike Tennenbaum.  I understand Rex Ryan has input on players but when it comes to putting a bad roster together, the GM is the one who needs to take the fall.  Tennenbaum loves trading up in the draft to get guys he wants (Revis, Harris, Greene, Sanchez) and it's kind of worked out (and I'm counting Sanchez as kind of working out if you go back and look at that trade*).  That's on Tennenbaum.  Rex can coach defense.  The history is there as a coordinator and in his first couple of years as a head coach.  Ideally I would still like to give him a couple of more years but someone needs to be the scapegoat for this year.  Brian Schottenheimer was the guy for last year so they can't go back to the Offensive Coordinator well again and fire Tony Sparano.  So the guy has to be Tennenbaum.  Unfortunately for Rex they need to be a package deal.  It's unfair to bring in a new GM and not let him hire a new Head Coach.  And if they made the new GM keep Rex it would only be delaying the inevitable that situation never works out.  Just cut ties and blow the thing up.

Where I fault Rex Ryan the most is actually in the hiring of Tony Sparano.  That was a miserable hire and you could see it coming from a mile away.  Just because Rex wants to run a certain type of offense doesn't mean they had the pieces to run it.

Notice on the pie chart that Mark Sanchez isn't represented.  I actually feel really bad for this guy.  He has the talent to succeed in this league.  I'm sure of it.  But the Jets broke him and they did it at every turn.  The receiving core they marched out there in 2011 was so old and incapable of getting open.  They had Santonio Holmes as a #1 when in reality he is a glorified slot receiver, Plaxico Burress who was helpful in the red zone but completely unable to get any separation between the 20s and an on his last legs Derrick Mason.  Gone was Jericho Cotchery who was his most reliable receiver and gone was Braylon Edwards who was the only guy on the team who could actually stretch the field.  Somehow he managed to throw for 26 TDs and run for 6 more.  Then forget about the Tim Tebow disaster.  I tried to talk myself in to is possibly working but every Jets fan knew that it was going to be a disaster.  Not only didn't it work from an on field aspect, the media writing about Tebow week in and week out has made this season unbearable.  I would trade this season in for the 1-15 season in a heartbeat.  

If the Jets had lost a normal game to the Patriots on Thanksgiving then I actually think this regime would be safe for next year.  There are a few legitimate excuses for a down year.  Their best defensive player (if not the best defensive player in the league) and their "best" offensive player are out for the year.  But to lose the way they lost on a football holiday on national television means heads have to roll.

As a lifelong Jets fan I would like to close out with a prediction:

At the urging of Woody Johnson Tim Tebow gets his shot.  The Jets finishing up the last five games facing teams with a combined record of 18-37 they run the table with Tebow at the helm.  The 9-7 record doesn't get them in the playoffs but it saves every one's job.  The Jets brass are convinced that Tim Tebow is their guy for 2013 completely ignoring the fact that they were playing lousy teams.  Tim Tebow being a disgusting NFL quarterback leads the Jets to a 4-12 2013 season wasting yet another year.

*Jets move from 17 to 5, give up a 2nd rounder in the same draft and send Kenyon Coleman, Abram Elam and Brett Ratliff to Cleveland.  Look at what Washington gave up for RGIII this year (two future 1st round picks and a 2nd rounder in this past draft. And that was only to move up 4 spots).  The Jets gave up essentially nothing to get Sanchez.  The worst thing a Jets fan can do is wonder how the draft would have shaken out if that trade never happened.  The Browns traded the 17th pick that was the Jets pick to Tampa to select Josh Freeman.  Cleveland flubbed the 2nd round pick they got from the Jets (David Veikune) but the player who went with the pick right after was LeSean McCoy.  I'm not super high on Freeman but the offense does seem like it would be in better hands with Freeman and a do-it-all back like Shady McCoy doesn't it?