Updated through all bowl games
Every couple of days I'll update this post with more games to keep the lines as up to date as possible. Once I post a pick I won't be changing the line in the post. I'm getting the lines from Sportsbook.com.
December 21, 2013
GILDAN NEW MEXICO BOWL - ALBUQUERQUE, NM
Washington State (6-6, 4-5 Pac-12) vs.
Colorado State (7-6, 5-3 MW)
Washington State -5
When picking bowl games I generally look at how motivated a team in to be in the game. This is a case where both teams are thrilled to be back in a bowl game. Washington State hasn't been in 10 years and for Colorado State you couple a four year drought with being a potential candidate to not be invited to a bowl(Seven MW teams bowl eligible, 6 tie-ins) and they're plenty happy to be there. If I'm doing a College Bowl Pick Em using confidence points this one is getting in the running to get the 1. I'm going to go with Kapri Bibbs and his 1,500+ yards and 28 touchdowns moving the chains and keeping in within range. Connor Halliday led the nation in attempts and threw 21 picks. With all those drop backs Shaquil Barrett and his 12 sacks will get a lot of chances to get after him.
The Pick: Colorado State +5
ROYAL PURPLE LAS VEGAS BOWL - LAS VEGAS, NV
#20 Fresno State (11-1, 7-1 MW) vs.
#25 USC (9-4, 6-3 Pac-12)
USC -6.5
Recruits don't go to USC to play in the Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl. After Lane Kiffin got fired they rallied around interim HC
Ed Orgeron so that could have continued to been a rallying point for the team if he was coaching them. A lot of schools use a bowl game like this as a building block. USC doesn't need a building block. They'll reload soon enough. I'd say Fresno might not be super motivated for this game either since a late loss kept them from a potential BCS Bowl but I'd say having USC as an opponent helps them. Even though USC isn't a normal USC team, the brand alone would be a nice feather in the cap of Fresno State. It should be an interesting match up. Derek Carr is a prolific passer and USC's defense was #1 in the Pac-12. They held two of the top 5 biggest passers in the conference in check during the regular season. My biggest worry for USC is their ability to put points on the board. They have been better since Cody Kessler got the full time job but Silas Redd is probably not playing.
The Pick: Fresno State +6
FAMOUS IDAHO POTATO BOWL - BOISE, ID
Buffalo (8-4, 6-2 MAC) vs.
San Diego State (7-5, 6-2 MW)
Buffalo -1
For the one or two people that are going to read this, don't follow me on this pick. As a Buffalo alum I can't do this objectively. I do think they'll win the game. They have arguably the best player on the field when the offense is on the field in Brandon Oliver and definitely the best player on the field when the defense is on the field in Khalil Mack.
The Pick: Buffalo -1
R+L CARRIERS NEW ORLEANS BOWL - NEW ORLEANS, LA
Tulane (7-5, 5-3 C-USA) vs.
LA-Lafayette (8-4, 5-2 Sun Belt)
Tulane -3
These are two teams that would have benefited by having their bowl game a little later in the schedule as both teams have banged up QBs at the moment. LA-Lafayette's Terrance Broadway didn't play in their season finale. He's the reigning MVP of this game and the Ragin' Cajuns are going for their 3rd straight New Orleans Bowl victory so they are familiar with playing in the Super Dome. Not as familiar as Tulane though who called the Super Dome home during the regular season. Nick Montana aggravated a separated shoulder in the regular season finale so he'll be dealing with that. Tulane was 5-1 at the Super Dome with their best win being against East Carolina. But even with Montana healthy the Tulane offense has been anemic lately. I'm assuming this line is because of Broadway's injury. I'm going on the assumption that he's going to play.
The Pick: LA-Lafayette +3
December 23, 2013
BEEF 'O' BRADY'S BOWL ST. PETERSBURG - SAINT PETERSBURG, FL
Ohio (7-5, 4-4 MAC) vs.
East Carolina (9-3, 6-2 C-USA)
East Carolina -14
I generally don't like taking this many points in bowl games but Ohio really hasn't been a good football team lately. You can point to the three game losing streak in November but it goes back further than that. Since their loss to Central Michigan on 10/12 they are 3-3 but their three wins in that stretch came against teams who are a combined 3-33 so I don't put much stock in those. East Carolina lights up the scoreboard with over 40 points a game. I'm counting on this one being a laugher.
The Pick: East Carolina -14
December 24, 2013
SHERATON HAWAII BOWL - HONOLULU, HI
Boise State (8-4, 6-2 MW) vs.
Oregon State (6-6, 4-5 Pac-12)
Oregon State -3
At one point during the year, Oregon State was 6-1 overall and 4-0 in the Pac-12. Sean Mannion was completing 68.6% percent of his passes and was sporting a 29-3 touchdown to interception ratio. Then came the good teams. Now Oregon State has lost 5 straight and Mannion has thrown 7 TDs and 11 Picks. All that being said, Oregon State's strength is throwing the ball and Boise isn't very good at stopping it. Oregon State is also stingy on defense against the pass. Couple that with Boise is playing without their head coach, I'm thinking Boise's bowl winning streak ends this year.
The Pick: Oregon State -3
December 26, 2013
LITTLE CAESARS BOWL - DETROIT, MI
Pittsburgh (6-6, 3-5 ACC) vs.
Bowling Green (10-3, 7-1 MAC)
Bowling Green -5.5
Bowling Green can play defense and move the ball in the air on and the ground. They just played at Ford Field in their last game when they crushed Northern Illinois' BCS Bowl dreams. They will be playing with an interim head coach since their head coach, Dave Clawson, took the job at Wake Forest (where he can play Pitt more often now). Tom Savage is an adequate QB and Pitt does have some good weapons at receiver and a super stud at defensive tackle. I think this is a field goal game in either direction.
The Pick: Pittsburgh +5.5
SAN DIEGO COUNTY CREDIT UNION POINSETTIA BOWL
Utah State (8-5, 7-1 MW) vs.
#23 Northern Illinois (12-1, 8-0 MAC)
Northern Illinois -2.5
There are two things that has me going against Northern Illinois in this game. First, the Poinsettia Bowl is a far cry from the BCS Bowl they were one win away from getting to. Second, watching the MAC Conference Championship, I saw a good defense contain Jordan Lynch. Utah State has that type of defense. The Aggies lost Chuckie Keeton during the season but they were only 3-4 when they went down and Darell Garretson has filled in admirably. After getting a taste of a BCS Bowl last year and falling short this year, I'm not seeing Northern Illinois getting up for this one.
The Pick: Utah State +2.5
December 27, 2013
MILITARY BOWL - ANNAPOLIS, MD
Marshall (9-4, 7-1 C-USA) vs.
Maryland (7-5 3-5 ACC)
Marshall -2
This line seems a little low for me which sets off an alarm. Maryland is dinged up and Marshall's offense is very potent. This feels a lot like the East Carolina/Ohio game except Maryland is better than Ohio. Even after losing two of their top receivers, Maryland did find a way to start moving the ball against towards the end of the year. But ultimately I think this will be a close game through with Marshall pulling away by two scores late in the game.
The Pick: Marshall -2
TEXAS BOWL - HOUSTON, TX
Syracuse (6-6, 4-4 ACC) vs.
Minnesota (8-4, 4-4 Big Ten)
Minnesota -5
Minnesota's season is why it's best to look preseason rankings as a way to give sports writers something to do to earn their paycheck in the off season. The Gophers were largely picked to finish last in the Legends division of the Big Ten but turned in a season where they almost popped their head in on the Top 25. I don't like to look at common opponents, but in this case Cuse did lose to Penn State and Northwestern earlier in the year with Minnesota beating them both. With everything that went on with Minnesota coach, Jerry Kill, I think Minnesota is just destined to win this game but I don't think it would be my more than a TD.
The Pick: Syracuse +5
FIGHT HUNGER BOWL - SAN FRANCISCO, CA
BYU (8-4) vs.
Washington (8-4, 5-4 Pac-12)
Washington -3.5
If it wouldn't surprise you if the underdog won the game, take the points. That's a betting rule I mostly try to follow. In this case you have two powerful offenses and the favorite is playing this game without their head coach. I think BYU can win so I'm taking the points.
The Pick: BYU +3.5
December 28, 2013
NEW ERA PINSTRIPE BOWL - BRONX, NY
Rutgers (6-6, 3-5 American) vs.
Notre Dame (8-4)
Notre Dame -14
I'm not really going to waste a lot of time on this game. Rutgers is a bad football team. They are lucky that the NY/NJ area has a bowl game because the geographic appeal of them playing in it makes it a little more interesting. Notre Dame will draw very well so it won't even feel like a Rutgers home game either. Rutgers' best win was probably against SMU while ND has the scalps of #4 Michigan State, #14 Arizona State and #25 USC. I'd take ND if the line was -20.
The Pick: Notre Dame -14
BELK BOWL - CHARLOTTE, NC
Cincinnati (9-3, 6-2 American) vs.
North Carolina (6-6, 4-4 ACC)
North Carolina -3
Both teams come in on a hot stretch with both losing their regular season finale. Cincinnati has won 6 of their last 7 and UNC overcame a 1-5 start to finish 5-1 and get bowl eligibility. I'm very anti-American Athletic Conference and I don't really see any quality wins down the stretch and I think UNC's offense is a tick better.
The Pick: North Carolina -3
RUSSELL ATHLETIC BOWL - ORLANDO, FL
Miami(FL) (9-3, 5-3 ACC) vs.
#18 Louisville (11-1, 7-1 American)
Louisville -3.5
This game has a few fun story lines. This teams will be conference mates next season, Teddy Bridgewater originally committed to Miami and this could probably be his last collegiate game. Louisville is interesting. They were in the Top 10 in both polls before getting tripped up by UCF which sent them to a 12 spot fall in the polls where they just kind of remained because of the weakness of the AAC. Knowing what the voters know now that UCF is pretty good football team, would Louisville still be around the Top 10? That's neither here nor there. If the coaching staff is nice, they'll let Bridgewater fling the ball all over the field in his probable swan song. In cases like that you can worry that you can be susceptible to turnovers, but Bridgewater only has 4 picks all year.
The Pick: Louisville -3.5
BUFFALO WILD WINGS BOWL - TEMPE, AZ
Michigan (7-5, 3-5 Big Ten) vs
Kansas State (7-5, 5-4 Big 12)
Kansas State -5
This game is supposed to pit the #4 Big Ten team vs the #4 Big 12 team. The Big 12 sent two teams to the BCS games so K-State gets bumped to this game while the bowl chose to bring Michigan over Nebraska because they are more marketable. Seems like a mistake now that Devin Gardner broke his foot and freshman Shane Morris is now starting the game. I'm not going to pretend to know anything about Morris other than that he was recruited with a big arm. Maybe he can still get Jeremy Gallon his full allotment of touches but it's not just the passing offense that's affected, Gardner was the teams second leading rusher as well. I generally bet against the unknown which we do have a lot of on Michigan's side.
The Pick: Kansas State -5
December 30, 2013
BELL HELICOPTER ARMED FORCES BOWL - FORT WORTH, TX
Middle Tennessee State (8-4, 6-2 C-USA) vs
Navy (8-4)
Navy -6
Sure MTSU won it's last 5 games and started the string by beating Marshall which is what counts for a good win in Conference USA but their last 4 wins have come against teams with a combined 6-42. So it's hard to tell whether or not MTSU is truly playing their best ball of the season or just beat up on the dregs of a bad football conference. It's not like Navy's last 4 wins were against world beaters either but they did beat Pitt and made a solid showing in almost going in to South Bend and beating Notre Dame which is a lot more that MTSU can say. Plus, Navy has record setting QB Keenan Reynolds who will pad his single season TD record in this one.
The Pick: Navy -6
FRANKLIN AMERICAN MORTGAGE MUSIC CITY BOWL - NASHVILLE, TN
Ole Miss (7-5, 3-5 SEC) vs.
Georgia Tech (7-5, 5-3 ACC)
Ole Miss -3
Ole Miss' season was a disappointment and they ended the season on a two game losing streak. That all being said, I think they have more play makers than Georgia Tech and should win this by at least a TD
The Pick: Ole Miss -3
VALERO ALAMO BOWL - SAN ANTONIO, TX
#10 Oregon (10-2, 7-2 Pac-12) vs.
Texas (8-4, 7-2 Big 12)
Oregon -14.5
Despite their 1-2 start, Texas rebounded and had a pretty decent season. They had a chance at the Big 12 championship in their last game at Baylor. We all know what Oregon is. They'll likely light up the scoreboard and this will be a shootout. I think Texas plays hard in Mack Brown's last game and keeps in within the points.
The Pick: Texas +14.5
NATIONAL UNIVERSITY HOLIDAY BOWL - SAN DIEGO, CA
#14 Arizona State (10-3, 8-1 Pac-12) vs.
Texas Tech (7-5, 4-5 Big 12)
Arizona State -15.5
I'm very tempted to just take Arizona State and assume the laugher. But this is one of those games where you wonder how motivated Arizona State is. They lost a game at home to miss out on the Rose Bowl and they were given an uninspiring opponent who ended the season on a 5 game losing streak. But Texas Tech isn't good. It's a lot of points to give in a bowl game but I don't think this will be close.
The Pick: Arizona State -15.5
December 31, 2013
AdvoCare V100 BOWL - SHREVEPORT, LA
Arizona (7-5, 4-5 Pac-12) vs.
Boston College (7-5, 4-4 ACC)
Arizona -7
For a couple of teams who couldn't break .500 in their respective conferences this game features arguably the two best running backs in the country. The X factor for me is the QB position. B.J. Denker gives the dual threat that I think will put Arizona over. That being said, these two teams are pretty equal and I think the touchdown line is too high.
The Pick: Boston College +7
HYUNDAI SUN BOWL - EL PASO, TX
Virginia Tech (8-4, 5-3 ACC) vs.
#17 UCLA (9-3, 6-3 Pac-12)
UCLA -8
UCLA is ranked and has a QB shooting up draft boards but Virginia Tech sports one of the best defense in all of college football. The big problem is Virginia Tech's inability to score points. I think they put up enough points to keep this within the spread.
The Pick: Virginia Tech +8
AutoZone LIBERTY BOWL - MEMPHIS, TN
Rice (10-3, 7-1 C-USA) vs.
Mississippi State (6-6, 3-5 SEC)
Mississippi State -7
Normally I'd say any SEC wouldn't be super motivated to play in the Liberty Bowl but Mississippi State had to scratch and claw with two OT wins to close out the season to even become bowl eligible so I'm sure they are happy to have another game. Rice is a decent running team and they will be able to move the chains but the disparity of the level of competition these two team played is so great that I don't see Rice throwing a whole lot at Miss St that they have seen done and done a lot better.
The Pick: Mississippi State -7
Chick-fil-A BOWL - ATLANTA, GA
#24 Duke (10-3, 6-2 ACC) vs.
#21 Texas A&M (8-4, 4-4 SEC)
Texas A&M -13.5
Duke had a chance for a BCS bowl before running in to Florida State in the ACC championship. Normally I'd take pause and consider the motivation factor but in Duke's case, this kind of success is still uncharted territory. And being that Johnny Manziel is on the field, this is a big stage for Duke. I think Texas A&M will win this game but Duke can score and A&M's D is allowing 31 PPG so they can be scored upon.
The Pick: Duke +13.5
January 1, 2013
TAXSLAYER.com GATOR BOWL - JACKSONVILLE, FL
Nebraska (8-4, 5-3 Big Ten) vs.
#22 Georgia (8-4, 5-3)
Georgia -8.5
Taylor Martinez! Aaron Murray!...are not playing. Both team are heading in to this game with their back up QBs. I like Georgia to win this one but probably not by over a TD.
The Pick: Nebraska +8.5
HEART OF DALLAS BOWL - DALLAS, TX
UNLV (7-5, 5-3 MW) vs.
North Texas (8-4, 6-2 C-USA)
North Texas -7
North Texas is coming in on a hot streak and this game is pretty close to the North Texas campus.
The Pick: North Texas -7
OUTBACK BOWL - TAMPA, FL
Iowa (8-4, 5-3 Big Ten) vs.
#16 LSU (9-3, 5-3 SEC)
LSU - 8.5
Being without Zach Mettenberger changes this game dramatically. Iowa's defense is solid and while LSU has the skill position players to make plays on them, it's a matter if Anthony Jennings can get the ball in their hand. Kirk Ferentz usually has Iowa up for Bowl games. 8.5 is too much.
The Pick: Iowa +8.5
CAPITAL ONE BOWL - ORLANDO, FL
#19 Wisconsin (9-3, 6-2 Big Ten) vs.
#9 South Carolina (10-2, 6-2 SEC)
Pick
Wisconsin has a stout defense and a solid running game. I don't see Jadeveon Clowney making an impact today as he seems to be in "just get to the NFL draft without getting hurt" mode. Connor Shaw has a knack for making big plays for South Carolina but I think he'll come up a little short in this one.
The Pick: Wisconsin
ROSE BOWL GAME PRES. BY VIZIO
#5 Stanford (11-2, 7-2 Pac-12) vs.
#4 Michigan State (12-1, 8-0 Big Ten)
Stanford -7
My heart is with Michigan State in this one after they crushed Ohio State's dreams of the BCS Championship game but I didn't think the Big 10 was very good this year, Stanford has better skill position players and Michigan State is missing Max Bullough. I'd like it to be closer than a TD game but I think Stanford pulls away by two scores late.
The Pick: Stanford -7
TOSTITOS FIESTA BOWL - GLENDALE, AZ
#15 UCF (11-1, 8-0 AAC) vs.
#6 Baylor (11-1, 8-1 Big 12)
Baylor -17
A lot is being said about Blake Bortles and his rise up the NFL draft boards. But the fact of the matter is that he's not in the NFL yet and while the QB on the other sideline isn't the pro prospect Bortles is, in the college game there is no QB edge to either team in this one. I think this game goes similar to last year's BCS Bowl crasher Northern Illinois/Florida State game(albeit higher scoring). Baylor pulls away and wins this comfortably.
The Pick: Baylor -17
January 2, 2013
ALLSTATE SUGAR BOWL - NEW ORLEANS, LA
#11 Oklahoma (10-2, 7-2 Big 12) vs.
#3 Alabama (11-1, 7-1 SEC)
Alabama -17
Again I hate taking so many points in a BCS bowl game but Alabama is arguably the best team in the country done in by a fluke play. I do question their motivation in this game but it's hard to bet against a winner like AJ McCarron to lose in this last game. Oklahoma's running game is really solid but their passing game isn't good enough for Alabama not to load up to stop the run.
The Pick: Alabama -17
January 3, 2013
AT&T COTTON BOWL - ARLINGTON, TX
#13 Oklahoma State (10-2, 7-2 Big 12) vs.
#8 Missouri (11-2, 7-1 SEC)
Oklahoma State -2
This one is going to come down to who scores last. Oklahoma State has won the last three times they played but that was when Missouri was in the Big 12. Now they have been battle tested in the tougher SEC. This is a toss up.
The Pick: Missouri -2
DISCOVER ORANGE BOWL - MIAMI, FL
#12 Clemson (10-2, 7-1 ACC) vs.
#7 Ohio State (12-1, 8-0 Big 10)
Ohio State -3
I think Ohio State was so sure they were going to play for the BCS Championship that they overlooked Michigan State. Ohio State is the slightly better team but I don't think they are going to be as motivated to be here and Clemson.
The Pick: Clemson +3
January 4, 2013
BBVA COMPASS BOWL - BIRMINGHAM, AL
Vanderbilt (8-4, 4-4 SEC) vs
Houston (8-4, 5-3 AAC)
Vanderbilt -3
I think this is a field goal game in either direction. Jordan Matthews is one of my favorite players in college football. When Vandy passes the ball everyone knows where it's going yet he still racks up catches. Houston has the nations best turnover margin and Vandy's QBs do throw some picks in their limited throws. The Pick: Houston +3
January 5, 2013
GODADDY BOWL - MOBILE, AL
Arkansas State (7-5, 5-2 Sun Belt) vs.
Ball State (10-2, 7-1 MAC)
Ball State -7
This is Arkansas State's third straight trip to this bowl and for the third time it will be coached by an interim head coach. But the interim head coach coaching this year was the interim head coach for the bowl last year. Got it? That being said, I still like them to win the game outright. Ball State is a good team but I just have a feeling.
The Pick: Arkansas State +7
January 5, 2014
VIZIO BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP
#1 Florida State (12-1, 7-1 SEC) vs.
#2 Auburn (12-1, 7-1 SEC)
Florida State -10
The tough thing about having a month between these two teams' last game and the BCS Championship is that It gives me time to be swayed. Ask me when this game was made official and I automatically pick Florida State. I'm not one to bow at the alter of the SEC but Auburn's road to this game was monumentally harder (and luckier). The moment I got on board with FSU was when they went in to (#3 at the time) Clemson and destroyed them. From that moment I knew they'd be in this game. But a closer look at their schedule and you see that this will technically be the third ranked team they've played all year. Maryland and Miami were both ranked when they played them but since then they are both outside the top 25. This will be Auburn's sixth ranked team and second #1 team they've played. Another side effect of having so much time between games and read enough that I'm now convinced Gus Malzahn is now some kind of offensive super genius. On the flip side, Florida State has rolled people all year. Regardless of how difficult their schedule was, they will be confident. If you are betting on Florida State then you are probably assuming a 50-27 type of game. A bet for Auburn and you are banking on Auburn punching them in the mouth early and seeing how they handle adversity since they really haven't done that all year. Time has made me change my tune and I'm going with the latter.
The Pick: Auburn +10
