My Inevitably Bad 2013-2014 College Bowl Picks

Updated through all bowl games

Every couple of days I'll update this post with more games to keep the lines as up to date as possible.  Once I post a pick I won't be changing the line in the post.  I'm getting the lines from Sportsbook.com.

December 21, 2013

GILDAN NEW MEXICO BOWL - ALBUQUERQUE, NM
Washington State (6-6, 4-5 Pac-12) vs.
Colorado State (7-6, 5-3 MW)
Washington State -5

When picking bowl games I generally look at how motivated a team in to be in the game.  This is a case where both teams are thrilled to be back in a bowl game.  Washington State hasn't been in 10 years and for Colorado State you couple a four year drought with being a potential candidate to not be invited to a bowl(Seven MW teams bowl eligible, 6 tie-ins) and they're plenty happy to be there.  If I'm doing a College Bowl Pick Em using confidence points this one is getting in the running to get the 1.  I'm going to go with Kapri Bibbs and his 1,500+ yards and 28 touchdowns moving the chains and keeping in within range.  Connor Halliday led the nation in attempts and threw 21 picks.  With all those drop backs Shaquil Barrett and his 12 sacks will get a lot of chances to get after him.
The Pick: Colorado State +5

ROYAL PURPLE LAS VEGAS BOWL - LAS VEGAS, NV
#20 Fresno State (11-1, 7-1 MW) vs.
#25 USC (9-4, 6-3 Pac-12)
USC -6.5

Recruits don't go to USC to play in the Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl.  After Lane Kiffin got fired they rallied around interim HC
Ed Orgeron so that could have continued to been a rallying point for the team if he was coaching them.  A lot of schools use a bowl game like this as a building block.  USC doesn't need a building block.  They'll reload soon enough.  I'd say Fresno might not be super motivated for this game either since a late loss kept them from a potential BCS Bowl but I'd say having USC as an opponent helps them.  Even though USC isn't a normal USC team, the brand alone would be a nice feather in the cap of Fresno State.  It should be an interesting match up.  Derek Carr is a prolific passer and USC's defense was #1 in the Pac-12.  They held two of the top 5 biggest passers in the conference in check during the regular season.  My biggest worry for USC is their ability to put points on the board.  They have been better since Cody Kessler got the full time job but Silas Redd is probably not playing.
The Pick: Fresno State +6

FAMOUS IDAHO POTATO BOWL - BOISE, ID
Buffalo (8-4, 6-2 MAC) vs.
San Diego State (7-5, 6-2 MW)
Buffalo -1

For the one or two people that are going to read this, don't follow me on this pick.  As a Buffalo alum I can't do this objectively.  I do think they'll win the game.  They have arguably the best player on the field when the offense is on the field in Brandon Oliver and definitely the best player on the field when the defense is on the field in Khalil Mack. 
The Pick: Buffalo -1

 R+L CARRIERS NEW ORLEANS BOWL - NEW ORLEANS, LA
Tulane (7-5, 5-3 C-USA) vs.
LA-Lafayette (8-4, 5-2 Sun Belt)
Tulane -3

These are two teams that would have benefited by having their bowl game a little later in the schedule as both teams have banged up QBs at the moment.  LA-Lafayette's Terrance Broadway didn't play in their season finale.  He's the reigning MVP of this game and the Ragin' Cajuns are going for their 3rd straight New Orleans Bowl victory so they are familiar with playing in the Super Dome.  Not as familiar as Tulane though who called the Super Dome home during the regular season.  Nick Montana aggravated a separated shoulder in the regular season finale so he'll be dealing with that.  Tulane was 5-1 at the Super Dome with their best win being against East Carolina.  But even with Montana healthy the Tulane offense has been anemic lately.  I'm assuming this line is because of Broadway's injury.  I'm going on the assumption that he's going to play.
The Pick: LA-Lafayette +3

December 23, 2013

BEEF 'O' BRADY'S BOWL ST. PETERSBURG - SAINT PETERSBURG, FL
Ohio (7-5, 4-4 MAC) vs.
East Carolina (9-3, 6-2 C-USA)
East Carolina -14

I generally don't like taking this many points in bowl games but Ohio really hasn't been a good football team lately.  You can point to the three game losing streak in November but it goes back further than that.  Since their loss to Central Michigan on 10/12 they are 3-3 but their three wins in that stretch came against teams who are a combined 3-33 so I don't put much stock in those.  East Carolina lights up the scoreboard with over 40 points a game.  I'm counting on this one being a laugher.
The Pick: East Carolina -14

December 24, 2013

SHERATON HAWAII BOWL - HONOLULU, HI
Boise State (8-4, 6-2 MW) vs.
Oregon State (6-6, 4-5 Pac-12)
Oregon State -3

At one point during the year, Oregon State was 6-1 overall and 4-0 in the Pac-12.  Sean Mannion was completing 68.6% percent of his passes and was sporting a 29-3 touchdown to interception ratio.  Then came the good teams.  Now Oregon State has lost 5 straight and Mannion has thrown 7 TDs and 11 Picks.  All that being said, Oregon State's strength is throwing the ball and Boise isn't very good at stopping it.  Oregon State is also stingy on defense against the pass.  Couple that with Boise is playing without their head coach, I'm thinking Boise's bowl winning streak ends this year.
The Pick: Oregon State -3

December 26, 2013

LITTLE CAESARS BOWL - DETROIT, MI
Pittsburgh (6-6, 3-5 ACC) vs.
Bowling Green (10-3, 7-1 MAC)
Bowling Green -5.5

Bowling Green can play defense and move the ball in the air on and the ground.  They just played at Ford Field in their last game when they crushed Northern Illinois' BCS Bowl dreams.  They will be playing with an interim head coach since their head coach, Dave Clawson, took the job at Wake Forest (where he can play Pitt more often now).  Tom Savage is an adequate QB and Pitt does have some good weapons at receiver and a super stud at defensive tackle.  I think this is a field goal game in either direction.
The Pick: Pittsburgh +5.5

SAN DIEGO COUNTY CREDIT UNION POINSETTIA BOWL
Utah State (8-5, 7-1 MW) vs.
#23 Northern Illinois (12-1, 8-0 MAC)
Northern Illinois -2.5

There are two things that has me going against Northern Illinois in this game.  First, the Poinsettia Bowl is a far cry from the BCS Bowl they were one win away from getting to.  Second, watching the MAC Conference Championship, I saw a good defense contain Jordan Lynch.  Utah State has that type of defense.  The Aggies lost Chuckie Keeton during the season but they were only 3-4 when they went down and Darell Garretson has filled in admirably.  After getting a taste of a BCS Bowl last year and falling short this year, I'm not seeing Northern Illinois getting up for this one.
The Pick: Utah State +2.5

December 27, 2013

MILITARY BOWL - ANNAPOLIS, MD
Marshall (9-4, 7-1 C-USA) vs.
Maryland (7-5 3-5 ACC)
Marshall -2

This line seems a little low for me which sets off an alarm.  Maryland is dinged up and Marshall's offense is very potent.  This feels a lot like the East Carolina/Ohio game except Maryland is better than Ohio.  Even after losing two of their top receivers, Maryland did find a way to start moving the ball against towards the end of the year.  But ultimately I think this will be a close game through with Marshall pulling away by two scores late in the game.
The Pick: Marshall -2

TEXAS BOWL - HOUSTON, TX
Syracuse (6-6, 4-4 ACC) vs.
Minnesota (8-4, 4-4 Big Ten)
Minnesota -5

Minnesota's season is why it's best to look preseason rankings as  a way to give sports writers something to do to earn their paycheck in the off season.  The Gophers were largely picked to finish last in the Legends division of the Big Ten but turned in a season where they almost popped their head in on the Top 25.  I don't like to look at common opponents, but in this case Cuse did lose to Penn State and Northwestern earlier in the year with Minnesota beating them both.  With everything that went on with Minnesota coach, Jerry Kill, I think Minnesota is just destined to win this game but I don't think it would be my more than a TD.
The Pick: Syracuse +5

FIGHT HUNGER BOWL - SAN FRANCISCO, CA
BYU (8-4) vs.
Washington (8-4, 5-4 Pac-12)
Washington -3.5

If it wouldn't surprise you if the underdog won the game, take the points.  That's a betting rule I mostly try to follow.  In this case you have two powerful offenses and the favorite is playing this game without their head coach.  I think BYU can win so I'm taking the points.
The Pick:  BYU +3.5

 December 28, 2013

NEW ERA PINSTRIPE BOWL - BRONX, NY
Rutgers (6-6, 3-5 American) vs.
Notre Dame (8-4)
Notre Dame -14

I'm not really going to waste a lot of time on this game.  Rutgers is a bad football team.  They are lucky that the NY/NJ area has a bowl game because the geographic appeal of them playing in it makes it a little more interesting.  Notre Dame will draw very well so it won't even feel like a Rutgers home game either.  Rutgers' best win was probably against SMU while ND has the scalps of #4 Michigan State, #14 Arizona State and #25 USC.  I'd take ND if the line was -20.
The Pick: Notre Dame -14

BELK BOWL - CHARLOTTE, NC
Cincinnati (9-3, 6-2 American) vs.
North Carolina (6-6, 4-4 ACC)
North Carolina -3

Both teams come in on a hot stretch with both losing their regular season finale.  Cincinnati has won 6 of their last 7 and UNC overcame a 1-5 start to finish 5-1 and get bowl eligibility.  I'm very anti-American Athletic Conference and I don't really see any quality wins down the stretch and I think UNC's offense is a tick better.
The Pick: North Carolina -3

RUSSELL ATHLETIC BOWL - ORLANDO, FL
Miami(FL) (9-3, 5-3 ACC) vs.
#18 Louisville (11-1, 7-1 American)
Louisville -3.5

This game has a few fun story lines.  This teams will be conference mates next season, Teddy Bridgewater originally committed to Miami and this could probably be his last collegiate game.  Louisville is interesting.  They were in the Top 10 in both polls before getting tripped up by UCF which sent them to a 12 spot fall in the polls where they just kind of remained because of the weakness of the AAC.  Knowing what the voters know now that UCF is pretty good football team, would Louisville still be around the Top 10?  That's neither here nor there.  If the coaching staff is nice, they'll let Bridgewater fling the ball all over the field in his probable swan song.  In cases like that you can worry that you can be susceptible to turnovers, but Bridgewater only has 4 picks all year.
The Pick: Louisville -3.5

BUFFALO WILD WINGS BOWL - TEMPE, AZ
Michigan (7-5, 3-5 Big Ten) vs
Kansas State (7-5, 5-4 Big 12)
Kansas State -5

This game is supposed to pit the #4 Big Ten team vs the #4 Big 12 team.  The Big 12 sent two teams to the BCS games so K-State gets bumped to this game while the bowl chose to bring Michigan over Nebraska because they are more marketable.  Seems like a mistake now that Devin Gardner broke his foot and freshman Shane Morris is now starting the game.  I'm not going to pretend to know anything about Morris other than that he was recruited with a big arm.  Maybe he can still get Jeremy Gallon his full allotment of touches but it's not just the passing offense that's affected, Gardner was the teams second leading rusher as well.  I generally bet against the unknown which we do have a lot of on Michigan's side.
The Pick: Kansas State -5

December 30, 2013

BELL HELICOPTER ARMED FORCES BOWL - FORT WORTH, TX
Middle Tennessee State (8-4, 6-2 C-USA) vs
Navy (8-4)
Navy -6

Sure MTSU won it's last 5 games and started the string by beating Marshall which is what counts for a good win in Conference USA but their last 4 wins have come against teams with a combined 6-42.  So it's hard to tell whether or not MTSU is truly playing their best ball of the season or just beat up on the dregs of a bad football conference.  It's not like Navy's last 4 wins were against world beaters either but they did beat Pitt and made a solid showing in almost going in to South Bend and beating Notre Dame which is a lot more that MTSU can say.  Plus, Navy has record setting QB Keenan Reynolds who will pad his single season TD record in this one.
The Pick: Navy -6


FRANKLIN AMERICAN MORTGAGE MUSIC CITY BOWL - NASHVILLE, TN
Ole Miss (7-5, 3-5 SEC) vs.
Georgia Tech (7-5, 5-3 ACC)
Ole Miss -3

Ole Miss' season was a disappointment and they ended the season on a two game losing streak.  That all being said, I think they have more play makers than Georgia Tech and should win this by at least a TD
The Pick: Ole Miss -3

VALERO ALAMO BOWL - SAN ANTONIO, TX
 #10 Oregon (10-2, 7-2 Pac-12) vs.
Texas (8-4, 7-2 Big 12)

Oregon -14.5

Despite their 1-2 start, Texas rebounded and had a pretty decent season.  They had a chance at the Big 12 championship in their last game at Baylor.  We all know what Oregon is.  They'll likely light up the scoreboard and this will be a shootout.  I think Texas plays hard in Mack Brown's last game and keeps in within the points.

The Pick: Texas +14.5

NATIONAL UNIVERSITY HOLIDAY BOWL - SAN DIEGO, CA
 #14 Arizona State (10-3, 8-1 Pac-12) vs.
Texas Tech (7-5, 4-5 Big 12)
Arizona State -15.5

I'm very tempted to just take Arizona State and assume the laugher.  But this is one of those games where you wonder how motivated Arizona State is.  They lost a game at home to miss out on the Rose Bowl and they were given an uninspiring opponent who ended the season on a 5 game losing streak.  But Texas Tech isn't good.  It's a lot of points to give in a bowl game but I don't think this will be close.
The Pick: Arizona State -15.5

December 31, 2013

AdvoCare V100 BOWL - SHREVEPORT, LA
Arizona (7-5, 4-5 Pac-12) vs.
Boston College (7-5, 4-4 ACC)
Arizona -7

For a couple of teams who couldn't break .500 in their respective conferences this game features arguably the two best running backs in the country.  The X factor for me is the QB position.  B.J. Denker gives the dual threat that I think will put Arizona over.  That being said, these two teams are pretty equal and I think the touchdown line is too high.
The Pick: Boston College +7

HYUNDAI SUN BOWL - EL PASO, TX
Virginia Tech (8-4, 5-3 ACC) vs.
#17 UCLA (9-3, 6-3 Pac-12)
UCLA -8

UCLA is ranked and has a QB shooting up draft boards but Virginia Tech sports one of the best defense in all of college football.  The big problem is Virginia Tech's inability to score points.  I think they put up enough points to keep this within the spread.
The Pick: Virginia Tech +8

AutoZone LIBERTY BOWL - MEMPHIS, TN
Rice (10-3, 7-1 C-USA) vs.
Mississippi State (6-6, 3-5 SEC)
Mississippi State -7

Normally I'd say any SEC wouldn't be super motivated to play in the Liberty Bowl but Mississippi State had to scratch and claw with two OT wins to close out the season to even become bowl eligible so I'm sure they are happy to have another game.  Rice is a decent running team and they will be able to move the chains but the disparity of the level of competition these two team played is so great that I don't see Rice throwing a whole lot at Miss St that they have seen done and done a lot better.
The Pick: Mississippi State -7

Chick-fil-A BOWL - ATLANTA, GA
#24 Duke (10-3, 6-2 ACC) vs.
#21 Texas A&M (8-4, 4-4 SEC)
Texas A&M -13.5

Duke had a chance for a BCS bowl before running in to Florida State in the ACC championship.  Normally I'd take pause and consider the motivation factor but in Duke's case, this kind of success is still uncharted territory.  And being that Johnny Manziel is on the field, this is a big stage for Duke.  I think Texas A&M will win this game but Duke can score and A&M's D is allowing 31 PPG so they can be scored upon.
The Pick: Duke +13.5 

January 1, 2013

TAXSLAYER.com GATOR BOWL - JACKSONVILLE, FL
Nebraska (8-4, 5-3 Big Ten) vs.
#22 Georgia (8-4, 5-3)
Georgia -8.5

Taylor Martinez!  Aaron Murray!...are not playing.  Both team are heading in to this game with their back up QBs.  I like Georgia to win this one but probably not by over a TD.
The Pick: Nebraska +8.5

HEART OF DALLAS BOWL - DALLAS, TX
UNLV (7-5, 5-3 MW) vs.
North Texas (8-4, 6-2 C-USA)
North Texas -7

North Texas is coming in on a hot streak and this game is pretty close to the North Texas campus.
The Pick: North Texas -7

OUTBACK BOWL - TAMPA, FL
Iowa (8-4, 5-3 Big Ten) vs.
#16 LSU (9-3, 5-3 SEC)
LSU - 8.5

Being without Zach Mettenberger changes this game dramatically.  Iowa's defense is solid and while LSU has the skill position players to make plays on them, it's a matter if Anthony Jennings can get the ball in their hand.  Kirk Ferentz usually has Iowa up for Bowl games.  8.5 is too much.
The Pick: Iowa +8.5

CAPITAL ONE BOWL - ORLANDO, FL
#19 Wisconsin (9-3, 6-2 Big Ten) vs.
#9 South Carolina (10-2, 6-2 SEC)
Pick

Wisconsin has a stout defense and a solid running game.  I don't see Jadeveon Clowney making an impact today as he seems to be in "just get to the NFL draft without getting hurt" mode.  Connor Shaw has a knack for making big plays for South Carolina but I think he'll come up a little short in this one.
The Pick: Wisconsin

ROSE BOWL GAME PRES. BY VIZIO
#5 Stanford (11-2, 7-2 Pac-12) vs.
#4 Michigan State (12-1, 8-0 Big Ten)
Stanford -7

My heart is with Michigan State in this one after they crushed Ohio State's dreams of the BCS Championship game but I didn't think the Big 10 was very good this year, Stanford has better skill position players and Michigan State is missing Max Bullough.  I'd like it to be closer than a TD game but I think Stanford pulls away by two scores late.
The Pick: Stanford -7

TOSTITOS FIESTA BOWL - GLENDALE, AZ
#15 UCF (11-1, 8-0 AAC) vs.
#6 Baylor (11-1, 8-1 Big 12)
Baylor -17

A lot is being said about Blake Bortles and his rise up the NFL draft boards.  But the fact of the matter is that he's not in the NFL yet and while the QB on the other sideline isn't the pro prospect Bortles is, in the college game there is no QB edge to either team in this one.  I think this game goes similar to last year's BCS Bowl crasher Northern Illinois/Florida State game(albeit higher scoring).  Baylor pulls away and wins this comfortably.
The Pick: Baylor -17

January 2, 2013

ALLSTATE SUGAR BOWL - NEW ORLEANS, LA
 #11 Oklahoma (10-2, 7-2 Big 12) vs.
#3 Alabama (11-1, 7-1 SEC)
Alabama -17

Again I hate taking so many points in a BCS bowl game but Alabama is arguably the best team in the country done in by a fluke play.  I do question their motivation in this game but it's hard to bet against a winner like AJ McCarron to lose in this last game.  Oklahoma's running game is really solid but their passing game isn't good enough for Alabama not to load up to stop the run.
The Pick: Alabama -17

January 3, 2013

AT&T COTTON BOWL - ARLINGTON, TX
#13 Oklahoma State (10-2, 7-2 Big 12) vs.
#8 Missouri (11-2, 7-1 SEC)
Oklahoma State -2

This one is going to come down to who scores last.  Oklahoma State has won the last three times they played but that was when Missouri was in the Big 12.  Now they have been battle tested in the tougher SEC.  This is a toss up.
The Pick: Missouri -2

DISCOVER ORANGE BOWL - MIAMI, FL
#12 Clemson (10-2, 7-1 ACC) vs.
#7 Ohio State (12-1, 8-0 Big 10)
Ohio State -3

I think Ohio State was so sure they were going to play for the BCS Championship that they overlooked Michigan State.  Ohio State is the slightly better team but I don't think they are going to be as motivated to be here and Clemson.
The Pick: Clemson +3

January 4, 2013

BBVA COMPASS BOWL - BIRMINGHAM, AL
Vanderbilt (8-4, 4-4 SEC) vs
Houston (8-4, 5-3 AAC)
Vanderbilt -3

I think this is a field goal game in either direction.  Jordan Matthews is one of my favorite players in college football.  When Vandy passes the ball everyone knows where it's going yet he still racks up catches.  Houston has the nations best turnover margin and Vandy's QBs do throw some picks in their limited throws. The Pick: Houston +3

January 5, 2013

GODADDY BOWL - MOBILE, AL
Arkansas State (7-5, 5-2 Sun Belt) vs.
Ball State (10-2, 7-1 MAC)
Ball State -7

This is Arkansas State's third straight trip to this bowl and for the third time it will be coached by an interim head coach.  But the interim head coach coaching this year was the interim head coach for the bowl last year.  Got it?  That being said, I still like them to win the game outright.  Ball State is a good team but I just have a feeling.
The Pick: Arkansas State +7

January 5, 2014

VIZIO BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP
#1 Florida State (12-1, 7-1 SEC) vs.
#2 Auburn (12-1, 7-1 SEC)
Florida State -10

The tough thing about having a month between these two teams' last game and the BCS Championship is that It gives me time to be swayed.  Ask me when this game was made official and I automatically pick Florida State.  I'm not one to bow at the alter of the SEC but Auburn's road to this game was monumentally harder (and luckier).  The moment I got on board with FSU was when they went in to (#3 at the time) Clemson and destroyed them.  From that moment I knew they'd be in this game.  But a closer look at their schedule and you see that this will technically be the third ranked team they've played all year.  Maryland and Miami were both ranked when they played them but since then they are both outside the top 25.  This will be Auburn's sixth ranked team and second #1 team they've played.  Another side effect of having so much time between games and read enough that I'm now convinced Gus Malzahn is now some kind of offensive super genius.  On the flip side, Florida State has rolled people all year.  Regardless of how difficult their schedule was, they will be confident.  If you are betting on Florida State then you are probably assuming a 50-27 type of game.  A bet for Auburn and you are banking on Auburn punching them in the mouth early and seeing how they handle adversity since they really haven't done that all year.  Time has made me change my tune and I'm going with the latter.
The Pick: Auburn +10

Lucky Week 13: Bobs Road Dog Locks

Don't ask me why I waited until week 13 to post my locks of the week, just read them, bet them, and thank me. I will keep this weekly post going as long as I maintain a winning percentage above .500. Once I dip below, including if it happens this week, I will throw in the towel. Without further adieu, here are my picks in the league where they play....for pay.


Jacksonville Jaguars +6 @ Buffalo: Does anyone really think Buffalo is that much better than Jacksonville? I hope not. Buffalo has dropped 4 of their last 5, while the Jaguars are 1-1 with Henne at the help and have put up a scorching 61 points in the last 2 weeks. I expect a high scoring game which generally doesn't favor the spread, I just happen to think the Jaguars will come away with the victory. I'll take the 2 free field goals.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7 @ Denver: Its easy to buy into Denver as this Peyton Manning led juggernaut, but I don't entirely buy it. Yes they have won 6 in a row, but only one of those teams had a winning record at the time, and that is super mediocre San Diego. Tampa Bay on the other hand is 4-2 in that stretch, with their 2 losses combining for a total of 8 points against New Orleans and Atlanta. Denver may win this, and I kind of expect them to, but I guess it will be close late.


Indianapolis Colts +4.5 @ Detroit: For the record, I'm not totally in love with this game. But here is the thing, the Lions are done. That last loss was bone crushing, and probably eliminated all hops of the playoffs considering they still have games against Green Bay, Atlanta and Chicago on the schedule. The Colts on the other hand, are 2 more wins away from a playoff spot. With Houston coming up twice in the last 4 weeks, this is almost a MUST game for Luck & co. I expect they win, but if they lose, I expect it close enough that those points cover.

Season: 0-0-0

Super Bowl XLVI - The Pick

Late on January 22nd after Lawrence Tynes kicked the Giants in to the Super Bowl I was in a group text with a couple of my friends who are Giants fans and I wrote, "You'll beat the Pats. I'm pretty sure of it." Then I found out the Giants were dogs against the Pats so I preceded to talk about taking the Giants moneyline or taking an adjusted line to where they are giving points so I get better odds.

Two weeks later I'm still confident the Giants are going to win the game but look at my pick history this year. I was 15-19-1 in Bowl Games and 3-7 on the NFL Playoffs. I was pretty confident in most of those too. When debating who to take in this game my confidence in the Giants is under the "Cons" side of my list.

There is another reason that I'm starting to lean the Patriots way as well. As a Jets fan I know first hand that the chattier team never wins. If I'm a Giants fan I'm not happy with Jason Pierre Paul telling Tom Brady he's not a God. I'm not happy with Chris Canty telling Giants fans to get ready for a parade. Tom Coughlin can still try to play the "We're still the underdogs" but his players obviously don't think so. Even though the Pats are favored I really think they are the one's who should be playing that card. I've seen very few people picking the Pats to win.

So it turns out that I went from complete confidence in what my bet was going to be to probably laying off and rolling with my props. But if I have to go on record I think I'm going to go for the 0-4 against the Giants.

The Pick: Patriots -3(even)

NFL Championship Weekend Picks

BALTIMORE AT NEW ENGLAND

Line: New England -7

I'm 3-5 in these games. I'm done putting a lot of thought in to them. I'm going with my gut now. Baltimore looked awful last week. New England will put points up on anyone. Baltimore went up there and beat New England in embarrassing fashion two years ago in the playoffs and the Pats can use that as extra motivation. I think alot of pressure has been put on Joe Flacco and I don't think he's the type of QB who will react well to it. I agree with his critics, he's a passenger on this team. I think the Pats go up a few scores and don't take the foot off the Ravens throats until it's 00:00.

The Pick: New England -7

NEW YORK GIANTS at SAN FRANCISCO

Line: San Francisco -2.5

The Giants are peaking at the right time. I throw out all previous games and all previous stats. They don't mean anything at this point. They are a different team now. That doesn't mean I'm not taking San Fran though. As much credit as I give the Giants, there are not many teams in the NFL who wouldn't have beat the last three teams they faced with the way they showed up. I've mentioned Dallas in my Giants/Atlanta write up and I mentioned Atlanta in my Giants/Green Bay write up. This week it's Green Bay. There were at least 14 completions left on the field by Green Bay last week. And I'm talking unforced errors. Rodgers missing guys 25 yards downfield, 8 or 9 drops, etc. It was just a terrible performance. The one thing I like about the 49ers is that they don't throw up clunkers. The Giants are going to get a team's best for the first time in a month. And in that case, I'm taking the home team.

The Pick: San Francisco -2.5

2012 NFL Divisional Round Playoff Picks

I know after a 1-3 Wild Card Weekend people have been refreshing this page waiting for my Divisional Round picks.

Here we go:

NEW ORLEANS AT SAN FRANCISCO

Line: New Orleans -4

New Orleans is the sexy team right now. They've averaged over 42 points a game in their last three (all in domes FYI). When people think about the Saints they think 40+ points a game. But look at their point totals on the road: 34, 23, 30, 20, 22, 21(dome), 26(dome), and 42(dome). That's 27.25 points a game (25.8 in outdoor road games). And San Francisco, by the way, scores 27.6 points a game at home and has a top 5 defense. Not it wouldn't shock me if New Orleans won but don't think for a second we're looking at a 42-20 type game. If New Orleans wins it'll be more like 24-20. Have to take the points for the home team.

The Pick: San Francisco +4

DENVER AT NEW ENGLAND

Line: New England -13.5

New England's defense isn't good but I don't think it's as bad as advertised. For some reason they come out flat but if you look close games they were in, they clamped down in the second half. I think Denver will be able to move the ball but ultimately New England will get the 2nd half stops to pull away a little. That being said, much like I thought with the Lions/Saints game last week. I think this is going to be a 10-11 point game that only looked that close because of a garbage touchdown.

The Pick: Denver +13.5

HOUSTON AT BALTIMORE

Line: Baltimore -7.5

This is the toughest game for me to pick. When you think about Baltimore you immediately associate them with defense. Houston is starting a rookie quarterback so it's not out of the realm of possibility that Baltimore could blow Houston out. On the flip side, Houston's defense was actually slightly better that Baltimore and Houston can run the ball as good as anyone. At 7.5 points I'm betting more that we'll be seeing a 14-10 game than a Baltimore double digit win.

The Pick: Houston +7.5

NEW YORK GIANTS AT GREEN BAY

Line: Green Bay -7.5

I really wish this was a 7 point line. It's be alot easier for me to take Green Bay. The Giants are peaking at the right time and 2007 is still fresh in people's minds with the Giants having played Green Bay tightly earlier in the year (a la New England in 07). The Giants will get to Rodgers a few times. He's been sacked 41 times this year. On Chad Millman's blog a good point was raised, a few weeks ago when these two teams played Green Bay was a 7 point favorite in New York. Now it's essentially the same spread six weeks later after Green Bay has had an extra week off to get healthy? I can't take all four dogs...

The Pick: Green Bay -7.5

NFL Wild Card Round Picks

Sorry. I don't want to make this a picks dominated blog but it's just that season.

Cincinnati at Houston

Line: Houston -4

I see this being a pretty low scoring game. I'm going under the assumption at this point that T.J. Yates is starting and not Jake Delhomme. If it was Delhomme I'd be done typing this game already. Both teams have a good defense but Houston's is better and they are at home. I do think they will win this game and it doesn't leave me much margin of error but I think this is a field goal game. 17-14ish. Cincinnati is scrappy. That's why they are here.

The Pick: Cincinnati +4

Detroit at New Orleans

Line: New Orleans -10.5

The Saints are a near impossible out at home. In the Super Dome they are going to put up 45 points. That's great for me because the Lions are going to put up 38. The Lions are built to play in a dome as well. This game is a back door cover waiting to happen.

The Pick: Detroit + 10.5

Atlanta at New York Giants

Line: New York Giants -3

The Giants are playing better but it wasn't too long ago that the Giants couldn't stop the pass. And I don't believe that a game against a terrible Jets offense and a Cowboys team who still hasn't shown up for their Week 17 game should change anyone's mind about that. Atlanta has a ton of weapons and should be able to use them all against the Giants. The Giants will get to Matt Ryan a few times but you can't sack him on every drop back. The Giants have a good passing offense and a lot of weapons as well but Atlanta is solid against the run allowing less than 100 yards a game. I was leaning towards the Giants when it was supposed to be cold but it's supposed to be a picture perfect 45-50 degree day.

The Pick: Atlanta +3

Pittsburgh at Denver

Line: +8.5

I don't see a way that the Broncos score in this game. The Steelers are going to make Tim Tebow throw but that's not going to go well for. The bloom is off the rose with Tebow. Denver backed in and Tebow started doing something he wasn't doing during their run which is turn the ball over. All that being said, with Big Ben banged up I can see Pittsburgh getting a two score lead and just putting it cruise control. The Broncos defense is good as well and they are at home so Pittsburgh won't run away with it. I'm thinking like a 13-6 or 17-9 final. The Over/Under is 33. I'll probably take the under as well.

The Pick: Denver +8.5

College Bowl Picks - Last 4 Bowls

So I sit at 13-17-1 after 31 of the 35 bowl games. It's my final drive to salvage a .500 Bowl season.

AT&T COTTON BOWL

Kansas State vs. Arkansas

Line: Arkansas -8

We are back to the non-BCS Bowls which means I like taking points. Granted, on paper this is probably the most interesting non-BCS bowl with two teams from power conferences.

The one stat that jumps off the page at me is that Kansas State is +13 in turnover margin while Arkansas is even. That is an important stat but I my big concerns are that if Kansas falls behind that they don't have the fire power to come back. On top of that, Kansas State is one of the 20 worst teams in college football in passing yards per game which is what Arkansas does very well. Despite all that though. I still like the points. 8 is lot.

The Pick: Kansas State +8

BBVA COMPASS BOWL

SMU vs. Pittsburgh

Line: Pittsburgh -3.5

I was actually a little surprised to see Pitt favored by this much (if even favored at all). Pitt lost Ray Graham and did manage to go 2-2 without him. The rushing yards from Pitt were still there but the RBs who took his place average over a full yard less per carry. SMU throws the ball well (277.8 yards a game, 23rd in FBS).

From a personal stand point I can't Pitt. I don't think they should have been in this bowl. Western Kentucky got snubbed in favor of Pitt missing out on their first bowl game in school history. I'm not a Hilltopper fan but it's a shame when a team is going to lose 12 seniors, we're 7-1 in their conference and won 7 of their last 8 with their loss being at LSU. It's probably due to them being in the Big East and the fact they won the same bowl last year and over 40,000 were reported in attendance. On another interesting note, SMU is one of the teams replacing Pitt in the Big East shortly so it'd be a nice kick in the ass to have Pitt lose.

The Pick: SMU +3.5

GODADDY.com BOWL

Arkansas State vs. Northern Illinois

Line: Arkansas State -1.5

Northern Illinois can put up points. Thanks to the MAC getting run on ESPN during midweek games, I've seen more of Chandler Harnish and Co. than someone living in New York probably should. Normally I love teams in bowl games that can run. Northern Illinois gains 248.6 yards a game on the ground (8th in FBS) while also hanging in the middle of the pack in passing yards. And it's rare to have a QB like Chandler Harnish who has a 26 to 5 touchdown to interception ratio and also rush for close to 1400 yards. All that being said, I like Arkansas State in this game. Yes, Northern Illinois could put up 38 points a game but they also allowed 31 per contest. Arkansas State is capable of putting up points as well (around 33 a game) but they allowed less than 20 points and was 16th in FBS in rush yards per game allowed. When both teams have dynamic offenses and one team has a good defense, I lean towards the team that has the chance to get the most stops.

The Pick: Arkansas State -1.5

ALLSTATE BCS CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

Alabama vs. LSU

Line: Alabama -1

Despite this being the biggest game, I have probably the least to say about it. I expect this game to go roughly the same way as the first one. A low scoring affair that comes down to field goals. Some times in sports I get the feeling things are supposed to happen. This year I feel that Alabama is supposed to win this game. There has to be a change in the BCS system and one of the catalysts of change for that would be an unsatisfying solution as to who the national champion should be. Even if Alabama wins this game by a field goal, it was a neutral site and LSU beat them at home. Oklahoma State won their BCS Bowl game, don't they deserve some consideration. If LSU wins this game than the BCS can present their champion with no controversy. I believe the rematch is happening to throw a wrench into the works.

The Pick: Alabama -1

College Bowl Picks - Part 6

Tough bowl season for me. I'm 13-16 so far with a lot of bad beats. 50 yard game winning FGs by college kickers, going for the win with a 2pt conversion rather than go to OT and about 4 TDs that happened in the final minute of the game to blow covers. Profitable Bowl season has not been but it's been fun to watch anyway.

ALLSTATE SUGAR BOWL

Michigan vs. Virginia Tech

Line: Michigan -3

Usually when a team loses their conference championship it means losing a BCS Bowl bid. In Virginia Tech's case that didn't happen. They are still in a BCS bowl and it's actually a better game than having to play West Virginia. I've been reading that a lot of people like Michigan in this game. Personally I don't. I think it's going to be a close game as most of these games probably will be but Virginia Tech is a faster team than Michigan and I like the speed team in this game especially in a dome.

The Pick: Virginia Tech +3

DISCOVER ORANGE BOWL

West Virginia vs. Clemson

Line: Clemson -3

I immediately lean towards Clemson in this game because of my feeling on Big East football. But to be fair, they are 2-1 in bowl games thus far. West Virginia does do one thing very well and that is throw the ball. I'm sure if I go with Clemson I'm going to have a few frustrating moments as Geno Smith keeps a play alive and turns it in to a 30 yard completion. But other than QB, I don't see West Virginia matching up anywhere else better than Clemson.

The Pick: Clemson -3

College Bowl Picks - Part 5

CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL
Florida State vs. Notre Dame
Line: Florida State -3.5

You can't really bring motivation in to the conversation here since both teams aspired for something bigger than the Champs Sports Bowl. Before the year. Florida State was ranked in the Top 10 in the preseason and Notre Dame in the Top 20 in both polls. This game boils down to two things for me, better QB and better defense and in both cases Florida State has both. Couple that with the game being played in Florida and it's kind of a no-brainer for me.

The Pick: Florida State -3.5


VALERO ALAMO BOWL
Washington vs. Baylor
Line: Baylor -9.5

When all else fails I am a fan of taking the team that has the best player on the field which in this case is obviously Robert Griffin III. You couple that with the game being played in Texas and I shouldn't have to look much further than that. But why do I find myself leaning towards Washington? Both defenses are awful but Baylor's more awful, Washington was only 7-5 and their bad loss was a late hiccup at Oregon State. Other than that their losses were at Nebraska, at Stanford, at USC and at home against Oregon. Those are excusable to me. There is something in my gut that tells me it's going to be a one score shootout and 9.5 is a lot.

The Pick: Washington +9.5


BELL HELICOPTER ARMED FORCES BOWL
BYU vs. Tulsa
Line: Pick Em

I can't take anything BYU has done this year seriously. The beginning of the year looked promising. Beating a lousy SEC team on the road and then lost by 1 at Texas back when we thought Texas was good. Since then they have only been tested once in a "neutral" site game against TCU (in Arlington, TX). On the year BYU has beaten one team that is participating in a Bowl game and that is (after their loss in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl) 7-6 Utah State at home and that was on a fluky tipped TD pass at the end of the game). If you take TCU away, the combined record of their opponents is 50-84. As for Tulsa, they don't have any remarkable wins either but at least they beat two teams going to bowls and their 4 losses were at Oklahoma and Boise and home to Oklahoma St and Houston. That's the top of college football right there. Don't get me wrong, I think it's going to be a close game but I like Tulsa's running game and senior QB to pull it out.

The Pick: Tulsa


NEW ERA PINSTRIPE BOWL
Rutgers vs. Iowa State
Line: Rutgers -1.5

Big East football is dreadful. On the last week of the year Rutgers had a shot at a share of the Big East title and a place in the Orange Bowl. They laid an egg, turned the ball over 6 times and lost to a (at the time) 4-6 UConn team. If I'm Rutgers than I'm thinking one of two things: 1) how close we were to a BCS Bowl and this doesn't compare or 2) we are better than we really are. I'm not a big Iowa State fan but at least they are the reason we are seeing a rematch of LSU/Alabama in the BCS Championship instead of LSU/Oklahoma State.

The Pick: Iowa State +1.5


FRANKLIN AMERICAN MORTGAGE MUSIC CITY BOWL
Mississippi State vs. Wake Forest
Line: Mississippi State -6.5

There are few Bowl games I care less about than this one. Wake Forest doesn't do any thing particularly well. Mississippi State held opponents to less than 20 points a game. They did only go 2-6 in the SEC West. But it's the SEC West. Alabama, LSU, Arkansas and on top of that, the top 2 teams in the SEC East in Georgia and South Carolina. Going from playing teams like that to Wake Forest should seem like slow motion. Wake Forest also lost 4 out of 5 coming in to the Bowl. I can't think of a reason to take them

The Pick: Mississippi State -6.5


INSIGHT BOWL
Iowa vs. Oklahoma
Line: Oklahoma -14

Like I mentioned before with Texas. Guys don't come to Oklahoma to play in the Insight Bowl. 14 points is a lot in a Bowl game. Landry Jones has hit a funk and hasn't thrown a TD pass since November 5th. Oklahoma is going to win but Iowa is going to want it more enough to keep it within 14 points.

The Pick: Iowa +14


MEINEKE CAR CARE BOWL OF TEXAS
Texas A&M vs. Northwestern
Line: Texas A&M -10

With the exception of the Boise State/Arizona State game, I don't like big spreads in these smaller bowl games. Wacky things happen in these things. Texas A&M come in losing 4 of 5 while Northwestern comes in winning 4 of 5 (including a win at Nebraska last month). Like the Insight Bowl above, I think Texas A&M will end up ultimately winning the game but not by more than a score.
My two concerns are that A&M have the geographical advantage and Northwestern is turnover prone. It's a concern but not enough to overcome getting double digits.

The Pick: Northwestern +10


HYUNDAI SUN BOWL
Georgia Tech vs. Utah
Line: Georgia Tech -2.5

These are the type of games that get me in trouble. Utah is behind the 8-Ball with me from the get go. They finished under .500 in the Pac12 without having to play Stanford or Oregon. What team worth their while loses home games to Washington, Arizona State and Colorado. I'm tempted to take Utah here because Georgia Tech just doesn't win Bowl games lately. Four weeks to prepare for the option attack nullifies it a bit. The problem I have with betting on an option team is that if they fall behind and have to play catch up they are done. Utah is offensively challenged enough that I don't think they have the firepower to jump out to a big enough lead. I think Georgia Tech is due to break their 6 bowl losing streak.

The Pick: Georgia Tech


AutoZone LIBERTY BOWL
Cincinnati vs. Vanderbilt
Line: Vanderbilt -1.5

I know I'm giving another Big East team the short straw but this is pretty much a home game for Vandy. Vandy played a lot better defense that Cincy in the best conference in college football. Zach Collaros is coming back from an injury so you don't know what you're going to get. I would have taken Vandy up to 3.5 to 4 points.

The Pick: Vanderbilt -1.5


KRAFT FIGHT HUNGER BOWL
Illinois vs. UCLA
Line: Illinois -2.5

This line doesn't make much sense to me. I know the game is in California but I'm high on Illinois in this one. When in a rush I'll just go with the simplistic train of thought and say "they shouldn't even be in a bowl, they aren't going to win." But that gets me in trouble during the NCAA Basketball tournament so I didn't just discard UCLA without looking at the match up. My absolute favorite stat when picking football games is how a team can run and stop the run. Illinois doesn't run it at an elite level (171 yards/game which is 42nd overall out of 120 teams) but UCLA is towards the bottom of the FBS is run defense. On the flip side, UCLA can run the ball (better than Illinois actually. 190.7 yds/game) but Illinois is around the top 3rd in run defense and 7th overall in total yards allowed per game. With all the off the field stuff at UCLA, I don't see how Illinois doesn't win this by at least a touchdown.

The Pick: Illinois -2.5


Chick-fil-A BOWL
Virginia vs. Auburn
Line: Auburn -3

All things being equal I would like Auburn a lot in this game. But all things are not equal. Auburn's coaching staff is in disarray with both offensive and defensive coordinators getting hired elsewhere. Also Auburn's best player Michael Dyer is suspended. They are towards the bottom of the FBS in passing and without Dyer you can't say they are going to justify their 39th over ranking in rushing in this game. Virginia has a pretty good defense. Good enough to stop Auburn. I like Virginia to win outright in a low scoring game.

The Pick: Virginia +3


A couple of late additions. Busy weekend so I didn't have time for the full write ups.

Houston (-6.5) over Penn State
Michigan State (+2.5) over Georgia
Nebraska (+3) over South Carolina
Florida (-3) over Ohio State
Oregon (-4.5) over Wisconsin
Oklahoma State (-4.5) over Stanford

Bowl Pick Em - Part 4

LITTLE CAESARS BOWL

Western Michigan vs. Purdue

Line: Purdue -3

This is one of games you take a look at and think "there are too many bowls." If I was actually going to bet this game (which I probably won't) I'd probably just lean towards the conference strength and go Purdue. In the interest of "breaking it down" though, the one thing Western Michigan does well is throw the ball (close to 329 yards a game). Purdue is in the Top 3rd in NCAA in Pass Defense though. Both teams are pretty even in turnover ratio. Western is Even and Purdue is -2 for the season. But ultimately it is going to come back to conference strength. Western was 100th out of 121 in Total Yards allowed in the FBS and that was primarily against a MAC schedule. Purdue was around the middle of the pack defensively overall but at least it was against the Big Ten.

The Pick: Purdue -3

BELK BOWL

Louisville vs. NC State

Line: NC State -1.5

This is a very simplistic way of looking at this game but can I really bet on a team that lost to both participants in the Beef O' Brady's Bowl at home this year? The game is in North Carolina so NC State has the big geographical edge here. Both defenses are in the upper half of the FBS in yards allowed but NC State led all college football in INTs. I can't justify taking Louisville here.

I didn't know Belk was a department store.

The Pick: NC State -1.5

MILITARY BOWL

Toledo vs. Air Force

Line: Toledo -3

Can I really pick against Air Force in the Military Bowl? Toledo has trouble stopping the pass (113th out of 120) but Air Force doesn't pass (113th in total pass yards). Toledo is 28th in the country against the run and Air Force is a rushing attack. Home field advantage does go to Air Force with it being the Miliary Bowl and everything but I don't think they'll be able keep up offensively with Toledo.

The Pick: Toledo -3

BRIDGEPOINT EDUCATION HOLIDAY BOWL

California vs. Texas

Line: +4

I think this is a pretty even matchup on paper. Texas is coming in to the Bowl game losing 3 out of 4. Granted it was against pretty good competition but nevertheless. Since there isn't a lot to go on statistically in this game, I'm turning to geography and motivation. Geography favors Cal since the game is being playing in the state of California. This current group of Texas players either played in or were recruited during the back-to-back BCS Bowls in 2008 and 2009 with the latter year being for a National Title. I doubt these guys came to Texas to play in the Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl. I'm going to happily take the points.

The Pick: California +4

Overall: 5-3

Bowl Pick Em - Part 3

I'm doing these two together

SHERATON HAWAII BOWL

Nevada vs. Southern Miss

Line: Southern Miss -8.5

AdvoCare V100 INDEPENDENCE BOWL

Missouri vs. North Carolina

Line: Missouri -5.5

If I was doing a confidence pool I would definately have these two bowl games (Independence Bowl as well) at the bottom of my list. I don't know how to read either game. Southern Miss got snubbed for the Liberty Bowl, Southern Miss's Larry Fedora is on his way to UNC after the game, UNC's Interim Coach is on his way to coach under Urban Meyer at Ohio State, Missouri didn't get selected for one of the Big 12 affiliated bowls....I don't know what any one's motivation is.

In the Hawaii Bowl, Nevada was 7-5 but their worst loss was at Texas Tech by 1 point. This is the 3rd time in 7 years Nevada is playing in this bowl. They play that weird offense. Southern Miss was impressive against Houston and I'm an Austin Davis fan but I like teams that can run and 8.5 is a big line for a Bowl like this.

In the Independence Bowl, North Carolina did backslide towards the end of the season finishing 2-4. Missouri lost Henry Josey for the year but Kendial Lawrence did fill in well enough so I don't know if Missouri will lose much there.

So gun to my head....

The Pick: Nevada +8.5

The Pick: Missouri -5.5

Let's Bowl, Let's Bowl, Let's Rock-'n-Roll - Part 1

If you are going to use a lyric from Grease 2 this has to be the time, right?

It's the start of Bowl Season. I'm going to do my picks in bunches so I can pick against the most accurate line. So here is my first set picks for the first day of bowls on 12/17.

GILDAN NEW MEXICO BOWL

Temple vs. Wyoming

Line: Temple -7

Temple is 7th in the nation in rushing yards per game. Wyoming is 6th WORST in the nation in rushing yards allowed. Temple is also 3rd in the nation in points allowed per game (13.8). Both teams finished the seaosn well. Temple with 5 straight wins and Wyoming winning 5 of their last 7 but losing to Boise and TCU.

Statistical analysis aside, it should be a pro Wyoming crowd. It's easier to bus fans 600 miles to a game than it is to get fans from 1900 miles away. Plus Wyoming played in this bowl two years ago. They are playing a freshman QB but there is probably some familiarity with this situation for a bunch of players on Wyoming. I'm sure Temple wants to make a good showing here after being the only bowl eligible team to not be invited to a bowl last year (despite having the same 8 win record).

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Earlier in the week I was leaning heavily towards Wyoming. While it doesn't look like I made much of a case for Wyoming, it really wouldn't surprise me to see them win this game. My ultimate deciding factor was that while Wyoming is a good football team, they don't excel at any one part of the game. Temple on the other hand, can run the ball and play D at higher level than Wyoming can.

The Pick: Temple -7

FAMOUS IDAHO POTATO BOWL

Ohio vs. Utah State

Line: Utah State -1.5

Ohio was so close to playing in the prestigious GoDaddy.com Bowl but they blew a 20 point half time lead to lose the MAC Championship. I don't play MAC football so I don't pretend to know if every player in the MAC has a "GoDaddy.com Bowl or Bust" mentality? Did Ohio punter Paul Hershey just say what the whole Ohio team was thinking?

I'm going to go ahead and say yes. Forget about what bowl Ohio and Northern Illinois ended up going to. Winning a MAC Championship is the thing that means something to the players. And having to play on the first day of bowl season means that Ohio is only playing these games 15 days apart. I'm banking on Ohio still having a hangover from that game. Utah State on the other hand was sitting at 2-5 heading in to November before rattling off 5 in a row. I'm guessing Utah State is happier to be there than Ohio. Couple that with Boise being only 4 hours from Logan, Utah and I know who I'm going with.

The Pick: Utah State -1.5

R+L CARRIERS NEW ORLEANS BOWL

San Diego State vs. Louisiana-Lafayette

Line: San Diego State -4.5

I'm having a tough time with this one because geograpically and motivationally Louisiana-Layayette should be my pick. They are playing in their home state and this is the first bowl in 41 years. They should be fired up.

But I'm actually leaning towards Sand Diego State. They won 4 of 5 heading in to their bowl (with their loss being to Boise State) and they will have the best player in the game in Ronnie Hillman. Louisiana-Lafayette on the other hand is going in to the bowl on a two game skid. These teams are trending in opposite directions.

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The Pick: San Diego State -4.5