Breaking Down UFC 158

After what seems like an eternity of waiting, the much anticipated match between reigning welterweight champ Georges St-Pierre and former Strikeforce champ Nick Diaz is finally here. It has been impossible not to buy into the hype, the trash talking, and the absurdity that is Nick Diaz but the question is can Nick Diaz really stand toe to toe with the arguably the best fighter in the world?

I, for one, am not convinced. I will say that a small part of me is actually rooting for Diaz. He is the anti spokesperson. The villain. But he is also a real guy, and not a product of the most prominent fight camps or promotions money can buy. And more importantly, this guy is a guaranteed entertaining fight. He wants to brawl, and as he said, he does it because that's his job. This is what puts food on the table for this Stockton, CA native. He says he is not excited to fight. He is not ready. And I like that honesty. But GSP has never been more fired up. The last time he was antagonized this much, he destroyed Koschecks eye socket. If I was Nick Diaz, I wouldn't be excited either.

This card also has two other key welterweight match ups, Condit versus Hendricks for the number one contender and also Jake Ellenberger will try and continue his rise against former UFC contender Nate Marquardt. Below are my main card selections.

Mike Ricci over Colin Fletcher via decision: For the record, I could not care less about this fight and I am still perplexed how its on the main card. Ricci couldn't even win a very lackluster season of TUF where he was destroyed in the finals against Colton Smith. But this event is in his hometown and Fletcher is a striker, which is stylistically a better match than Colton was. It'll be close, and it it'll probably be boring.

Chris Camozzi over Nick Ring via TKO: I will never buy into Nick Ring, despite his record. He has the gayest nickname in all of sports, and hasn't really impressed me in any of his fights. His win over Court McGee was controversial to say the least, and Camozzi is coming off 3 straight victories. I see Ring having his hands full. The promise will be broken.

Jake Ellenberger over Nate Marquardt via decision: I used to like Marquardt, but that was a long time ago. He has a history of coming up very short in these decisive fights, and Ellenberger was on a total roll before being caught by Kampman last June. I expect the Juggernaut to regain his form in this fight, despite being undersized. Nate the Great will gas and lose the last two rounds of the fight.

Johny Hendricks over Carlos Condit via KO: I LOVE this fight. I honestly have no inkling whatsoever how it will go down, and I could see any number of things happening. Both of these guys have fought against the best of the best in the weight class, so both will be ready for this fight. The only difference I see is that Condit has had his title shot already and I think that may make the Bigg Rigg hungrier. He is also better at takedowns, which could prove pivotal in a close fight.

Georges St-Pierre over Nick Diaz via TKO/Doctors Stoppage: I actually believe GSP when he says he will deliver the biggest beating ever seen in the octagon. And Nick Diaz may be the toughest human being on the planet, so I expect him to endure an absolute barrage. Don't get me wrong, I am not counting Diaz out. His long jab may be the most formidable weapon GSP has seen in a while, but in the end I don't think he has the KO power that will be needed to surprise GSP.

2013 Record: 2-3

UFC on FOX 5: Diaz vs. Henderson Predictions

With all the injuries befalling the UFC these days I'm pumped that this card seems to be making in to December 8th intact.  The Henderson/Diaz main event should be a great showcase for the UFC on network TV


Mike Swick vs. Matt Brown (+130)

After a two and a half year absence Mike Swick finally came back to the UFC in spectacular fashion with the Knockout of the Night over DaMarques Johnson.  It was great to see because Swick had been battling so many injuries but I had him down in the first round against Johnson who is no longer even in the UFC.  I'm not putting too much stock in to that because after 30 months there is probably a lot of ring rust to shake off but I'm counting this as Swick's real return to the UFC.  Matt Brown has 8 wins in the UFC and out of those 8 opponents only one is still in the UFC (Stephen Thompson).  As unimpressed as I am with his resume, Matt Brown is a much more game fighter than Johnson was.  I'll be rooting for Mike Swick but I think he needs a few more live rounds to get his octagon legs back.  I'm picking Matt Brown to outwork him enough to get the decision.

BJ Penn vs. Rory MacDonald (-300)

As frustrating as BJ Penn was in the last few fights, it's going to be nice to see him back again.  Unfortunately, I think he made a terrible decision asking for this fight against MacDonald.  I don't care what roster of sparring partners he put together and I don't care if you can actually see abs on BJ Penn for the first time ever as a welterweight.  Whatever shape Penn gets himself in to, it's not going make him as quick or as big as MacDonald is.  And with over a years worth of ring rust on Penn I can see this not getting out of the first round.

Mauricio Rua (+160) vs. Alexander Gustafsson

I'm a Gustafsson fan.  When this fight was announced I was already to pick him to win this fight.  He is an up and comer and he has all the measurables you could want in a fighter.  Although he has main evented a card before, this is by far the biggest stage he's ever been on.  Shogun is only 31 but he has a lot of miles on his tires.  I see this fight going the distance and I know Shogun does tend to gas some but he's more equipped for three rounds of what I believe will be primarily a stand up fight.  I think it'll be close fight with Rua eeking out the decision.

Benson Henderson (-140) vs. Nate Diaz

Henderson was my favorite WEC fighter and is arguably my favorite UFC fighter so I'm probably picking this more with my heart than my head.  Nate Diaz is really coming in to his own.  What he did in his last two fights is really impressive.  I did not see him beating Donald Cerrone yet he landed close to 300 significant strikes and landed over 80% of his punches on the way to the win.  Then he goes out and submits a guy in Jim Miller who had never tapped before.  That being said, I do like Henderson in this fight.  In my eyes he can't be finished with strikes especially from Diaz.  He landed hundred of punches on Cerrone and it went to decision.  We've seem Henderson in some pretty deep water in submissions yet somehow always get out of them.  Diaz is, in my opinion, the best submission artist he'll fight to date but until I see someone put him to sleep or get him to tap I don't think I can bet on that to happen.  The Diaz brothers have cardio for days but Henderson's average fight time is now over 3 rounds (15:11).  I like Henderson to defend his belt as Nate Diaz goes into the championship rounds for the first time.

Is the UFC in trouble???

For starters, I understand that the UFC is not really in trouble. It is just that Mixed Martial Arts, more specifically the UFC, has catapulted into one of my favorite sports to watch and follow in the last 7 years and the excitement is starting to wear off for me for a number of reasons. At this point I still get more excited about a good UFC event than I do about an NFL Sunday, an NBA Playoff game, or any NHL game including the Stanley Cup. I am not the only one either, the sport has grown leaps and bounds since Dana White and the Fertitta brothers purchased the organization for a measly 2 million dollars in 2000 and has now surpassed boxing in almost every measurable way. But I think it may have gotten a bit off track.

Let's start by what the UFC did right.

1. They cleaned the sport up. A lot. Even before White took over, the writing was on the wall for the UFC, that if they didn't clean up their act there were very few, if any, states that would be hosting their events. So over a period of years, the implementation of  timed rounds, weight classes, illegal strikes (headbutting, fish hooking etc.) and the requirement of gloves started turning the UFC into a legitimate sport. As expected, this increased the mass appeal significantly.

2. The Ultimate Fighter. Maybe the most brilliant and well timed decision by the UFC was to use Reality TV as a platform to get the casual UFC fan into the sport and also into the competitors. Imagine watching "The Real World" except at the end of each episode, 2 of the housemates fight in an octagon for the ability to stay in the house. Brilliant. The show wasn't without growing pains however, in fact, the format of the first season is almost laughable (athletes being asked to leave the house without ever fighting because they lost a challenge) and many changes have been made to the increase the validity of the winner. But many fans credit the finale of TUF 1 between Stephan Bonnar and Forrest Griffin to be the most critical moment in the UFC's growth.

3. Less is More. Despite being the big dog, the UFC was not without competition (internal and external) early on. So to make things a bit easier to manage, they started swallowing them up. They added the WEC, WFA, Pride, & Strikeforce both increasing the talent pool dramatically, making the titles more relevant and unifying, and more importantly keeping fans tuned into one brand and one brand only, UFC.

Those are just a few of the many things that the UFC has done over the past decade to become the fasting growing sport in America. Add in the personalities and the increased level of skill and athleticism amongst the fighters, this sport was quite frankly impossible to ignore. But something seems to have happened in the last year and the enthusiasm, at least among my camp, has waned. Although I am still an enormous fan, below are couple of things I think the UFC NEEDS to do to right the ship. Dana, read this and call me.

1. Less is More: We get it, people love the UFC and we understand that the time is now to get it to as many people as possible in as many ways as possible. But what has happened is the UFC has become watered down. Case in point, UFC 151 and 152. The first event gets cancelled because after injuries, there was no viable way you could sell that card to people. It's easy to point the finger at Jon Jones as the guy who cost the UFC that event, but if that card wasn't so thin to begin with you wouldn't have been in that predicament. Now look at UFC 152. Aldo and Rampage pull out with injuries, and the best you can come up with is Stephan Bonnar and Anderson Silva to headline that event? I love both of those guys, but if Silva enters that fight at anything less than -1500 to win, I'll be shocked. Its a transparent and desperate move and UFC fans are smarter than that. They may get it, but its because they're starving for a good event not because they love it. That won't last forever, people like me have stopped getting every card. Look at the hedline fights of the evnts between now and November, they just aren't as good anymore. Free events on Fuel and Fox are great, but not at the cost of the PPV cards. If you can't make them all strong, consolidate. Please.

2. The Ultimate Fighter: You see what I'm doing here, right? Listen, I LOVE the show. It is still must watch TV for me. I have blogged episode recaps of several of the seasons and haven't missed an episode since I started watching. But the talent isn't as strong because real good UFC prospects go straight to the big show and what you get in TUF is about 14 1/2 guys that can't hack it in the UFC once the show is over. What's worse, is even the losers (I'm talking real losers, not finals losers) still get several fights in the UFC after the show is over. How does a guy who doesn't make it to the finals get a crack at a UFC event right after the show? What needs to happen is some sort of UFC Developmental League. Move the guys who don't win the show into that for a few fights against other TUF alumni and up and commer's. Make the glory of winning even more special by limiting the path to the UFC to only 1 or 2 guys from each season.

3. Clean Up the Sport: I'm talking here about the 500 lb gorilla in the room, the officiating. There has got to be more accountability with the refs and with the judges. I have seen way too many bad decisions and early and late stoppages with no repercussions other than a nasty tweet from you. Add 2 more judges to prevent fluke decisions. Clean up how the fights are scored so that takedowns don't trump damage. And please make every main card fight 5 rounds. 3 rounds is just not enough to decide who a top contender should be. These guys deserve a legit shot to showcase themselves. And outside of the rules and regs, clean up the management of fighters. Guys like Jon Jones have started to damage the sport. Not because he didn't take a fight with Sonnen on short notice, but because he isn't a UFC guy. He doesn't care about anything but Jon Jones. Same thing with Nick Diaz. There are guys like them in every sport, but started hitting them where it hurts with more suspensions.

UFC on FX: Alves vs. Kampmann - LIVE BLOG CROSSOVER EVENT - TONIGHT

Doing something fun tonight with a crossover live blog of tonight's UFC on FX: Alves vs. Kampmann with my buddy over at DixontheWall. Between fights you should go over there and check his site out.

Thiago Alves vs. Martin Kampmann is not a main event caliber fight. Could be interesting but it doesn't do much for me as a headliner and definately not one that deserves to get 5 rounds(should it need it) to sort out. The real main event for me the is the introduction of the first ever UFC Flyweight tournament. I'm a fan of the lower weight classes and it's going to be fun to see Demetrious Johnson and Joseph Benavidez fighting in their natural weight classes.