Wednesday, September 5, 2012

The Annual NFL Over Under Game - 2012 Edition

For the MLB and NFL seasons we draft 6 teams based on what Vegas has as their win total.  The prize usually involves the loser paying for a 2 hour open bar or something in that vein.  Here is how the selections went:
(The full list of the NFL Win Totals are on the left side bar.  My explanations for my picks are under the graphic)

Arizona Cardinals - Under 6.5
It's probably the one I'm least confident in.  They went with John Skelton to start Week 1 but the QB situation is going to be a problem all year.  The reason I'm not totally confident is that I'm still trying to figure out how they won 8 games last year.  They aren't in the strongest division so it wouldn't shock me in the least to see them go 3-3 in the NFC West.  Outside their division the easiest games left are probably vs. Miami and at Minnesota.  I'm thinking 5 or 6 wins.

Houston Texans - Over 10
In a normal year I would fear that Matt Schaub would get hurt and Houston would stumble to an 8-8 type of year.  Matt Schaub probably will get hurt again this year but I don't think any team in the AFC South is an above .500 caliber team.  If they don't get 6 wins from this division this year then they are not the team I think they are.  They have some tough games on the schedule this year (i.e., Green Bay) but I think at worst I push the 10.

New York Jets - Over 8.5
Everyone seems to be down on the Jets and I'm not really sure why.  Actually I'm pretty sure I know why and it has to do with Tim Tebow being on the roster.  He's dominated the off-season news for the Jets and it makes them look like nothing else happened.  But they got quicker on both offense and defense and it's my expectation that Mark Sanchez puts it together and has a good year.  I said before I saw what Vegas had their win total at that I see a 10-6 team.

San Francisco 49ers - Over 9.5
With the NFL the way it is now it really wouldn't surprise me to see San Fran take a step back to being a 8-8 team.  But like I said above with Arizona.  The NFC West is a pretty weak division.  I think Seattle is the only real team that could even finish 8-8 there this year.  5-1 through the division seems likely and with their defense going 5-5 against the rest of their schedule seems doable.

Tennessee Titans - Under 7.5
There was a time I wouldn't touch the under with Tennessee when Jeff Fisher was there.  But these Titans are resting their hopes on Jake Locker and Chris Johnson finding his form again.  It's not a strong division but there is nothing about this team that excites me.

Washington Redskins - Under 6
The NFC is arguably the best division in football and Washington is easily the worst team in it.  RGIII will be exciting but they have no weapons around him.  Throw it trips to Pittsburgh, New Orleans and the Giants and games against Atlanta and Baltimore, I just don't see too many wins on their schedule.

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