NCAA Tournament Play In Game Picks

 I'm all for these NCAA Tournament games on Tuesday and Wednesday.  What I'm not okay with is calling them the "First Round."  To me, they always will and always should be called "Play In" games.  The NCAA is the one bracket with 64 teams on it.  Not 64 lines with 8 other teams shoved in to open nooks and crannies of the bracket. 

While I'm here, I'll also mention that I do believe the Play In games should be all 12 seeds or the last 8 teams in the tournament.  Teams like Liberty, James Madison, LIU-Brooklyn and North Carolina A&T have earned their way in to the field of 64 by winning their conference tournaments.  Teams like Boise State, Middle Tennessee State, LaSalle and St. Mary's didn't do enough to be locks on Selection Sunday and should play on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Wouldn't it make a better night of TV if instead of having a game with two 16 seeds battle it out each night, you added Kentucky, Tennessee, Maryland and Virginia to these play in games? 

All that being said, here are my picks for the tonight and tomorrow's Play In Games:

Liberty (+3) over North Carolina A&T

In picking a game like this you can't go by which team is hotter right now since they both came out of nowhere to win their conference tournaments.  But one thing I look for out of these smaller schools is what's the one thing that each of these teams does best.  In this case, Liberty is good at shooting the three and NC A&T is good at blocking shots.  Liberty is limited offensively in the front court and rely heavily on the three so I don't see NC A&T's interior defense really coming in to play that often.  Also, NC A&T is one of the worst three point shooting teams in the country.  I think this 20 loss fairy tale continues for one more game.

Middle Tennessee State (+3) over St. Mary's

I've gone back and forth on this one.  MTSU has only beaten one team of St. Mary's quality all year and it was at home.  St. Mary's will have the best player on the floor in Matt Dellavedova.  A part of me wants to take St. Mary's because I think he deserves not to have his career end in a play in game.  I also would like to pick St. Mary's so I would have two games to raise my arms above my head and yell "STEVE HOLT!" every time Stephen Holt scores.  But I think MTSU is a bad match up for St. Mary's.  They both are capable three point shooting teams except MTSU defends the three well and St. Mary's does not.  Also, St. Mary's lacks depth and MTSU can run 11 deep at you.  And honestly, a part of me is taking MTSU because in my friend and I's attempt to predict the bracket we had MTSU out in favor of Tennessee.  Usually I take the team I miss to lose in their first game and it never works out for me.

LIU-Brooklyn (-1.5) over James Madison

Jump all over this game now while the line before it moves.  James Madison suspended their best player for the first half of the game for getting arrested this week.  And that is on top of the fact that LIU is the better team anyway.  This is LIU's third consecutive tournament.  Their three best players have participated in the last two.  If the Colonial Tournament wasn't decimated by conference re-alignment and APR sanctions, there is a good chance JMU isn't even here right now. 

Boise State (-1.5) over LaSalle

I went back and forth with this game as well.  I actually changed over to Boise State for the last time while I was in the middle of typing this.  One interesting thing about Boise State is that their losses have usually come when they were massively outscored at the FT line.  Their last few loses were by 6, 4 and 10.  They were outscored at the free throw line by 8, 15 and 14 respectively.  The Mountain West was an outstanding conference this year and Boise played the upper echelon of that conference pretty evenly except for that one area.  LaSalle on the other hand is one of the worst teams in the country at getting to the free throw line.  Now that can be largely due to their reliance on the three point shot.  But as good as LaSalle is at the 3, Boise is actually better.  Wait...I just learned that LaSalle is one of the best teams in the country at defending the three.  I'm stopping before I change again.


I was actually looking for an image of brackets to put at the top of this post.  I did a Google Image search and ended up with more images of the inside of people's mouths than I was comfortable with.

NFL Divisional Round Playoff Picks

Since it went so well last week, I'm going to give my picks for the NFL Divisional Round too!

Baltimore (+10) at Denver

Is it weird that despite Peyton Manning probably being the league MVP this year and an overall 13-3 record and being 7-1 at home, I still don't buy Denver as a Super Bowl team?  Don't get me wrong, I think they are winning this game but Baltimore is so seasoned and in the playoffs every year.  I don't see them getting handily beaten.  And I know that Peyton has been to two Super Bowls and won one of them but pass the Wild Card round of the playoffs and Peyton Manning is a 6-6 QB with a 16:13 TD to INT ratio.

The Pick: Baltimore +10

Green Bay (+3) at San Francisco

I have to take Green Bay.  For me it boils down to Aaron Rodgers in revenge mode.  He grew up here, he was passed over by San Fran.  I like what Kaepernick brings to the table as a QB but it's his first career playoff start.  I don't like the spot for San Fran here even at home.

The Pick: Green Bay (+3)

Seattle at Atlanta (-2.5)

I kind of thought Seattle would be getting a little bit more than 2.5.  I hate betting on Atlanta in the playoffs.  For the purposes of making picks on a blog nobody reads, I don't believe in buying points here so I can't take an average road team in the playoffs getting less that a Field Goal.  I really want to root for Seattle so I may lay off this one.  I'm scared if I take Seattle that I'm doing as a bandwagon rider.

The Pick: Atlanta (-2.5)

Houston at New England (-9.5)

Houston looks like a shell of their earlier season self.  I can't imagine they are going to give New England anything they can't handle.  Matt Schaub looks shaky lately and if New England's defense has a strength it's that it's pretty decent against the run.  I'm glad this is the last game of the weekend.  Usually I'm trying to navigate giving my kids a bath and watching the end of the 4:00pm Sunday games.  I have a feeling I'll be comfortable tuning out by the end of this one.

The Pick: New England -9.5

Playoffs: 1-3
(although I would have switched the Minnesota pick over to Green Bay once Ponder was out. But I'll own the loss.)

Lucky Week 13: Bobs Road Dog Locks

Don't ask me why I waited until week 13 to post my locks of the week, just read them, bet them, and thank me. I will keep this weekly post going as long as I maintain a winning percentage above .500. Once I dip below, including if it happens this week, I will throw in the towel. Without further adieu, here are my picks in the league where they play....for pay.


Jacksonville Jaguars +6 @ Buffalo: Does anyone really think Buffalo is that much better than Jacksonville? I hope not. Buffalo has dropped 4 of their last 5, while the Jaguars are 1-1 with Henne at the help and have put up a scorching 61 points in the last 2 weeks. I expect a high scoring game which generally doesn't favor the spread, I just happen to think the Jaguars will come away with the victory. I'll take the 2 free field goals.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7 @ Denver: Its easy to buy into Denver as this Peyton Manning led juggernaut, but I don't entirely buy it. Yes they have won 6 in a row, but only one of those teams had a winning record at the time, and that is super mediocre San Diego. Tampa Bay on the other hand is 4-2 in that stretch, with their 2 losses combining for a total of 8 points against New Orleans and Atlanta. Denver may win this, and I kind of expect them to, but I guess it will be close late.


Indianapolis Colts +4.5 @ Detroit: For the record, I'm not totally in love with this game. But here is the thing, the Lions are done. That last loss was bone crushing, and probably eliminated all hops of the playoffs considering they still have games against Green Bay, Atlanta and Chicago on the schedule. The Colts on the other hand, are 2 more wins away from a playoff spot. With Houston coming up twice in the last 4 weeks, this is almost a MUST game for Luck & co. I expect they win, but if they lose, I expect it close enough that those points cover.

Season: 0-0-0

The Annual NFL Over Under Game - 2012 Edition

For the MLB and NFL seasons we draft 6 teams based on what Vegas has as their win total.  The prize usually involves the loser paying for a 2 hour open bar or something in that vein.  Here is how the selections went:

(The full list of the NFL Win Totals are on the left side bar.  My explanations for my picks are under the graphic)

Arizona Cardinals - Under 6.5

It's probably the one I'm least confident in.  They went with John Skelton to start Week 1 but the QB situation is going to be a problem all year.  The reason I'm not totally confident is that I'm still trying to figure out how they won 8 games last year.  They aren't in the strongest division so it wouldn't shock me in the least to see them go 3-3 in the NFC West.  Outside their division the easiest games left are probably vs. Miami and at Minnesota.  I'm thinking 5 or 6 wins.

Houston Texans - Over 10

In a normal year I would fear that Matt Schaub would get hurt and Houston would stumble to an 8-8 type of year.  Matt Schaub probably will get hurt again this year but I don't think any team in the AFC South is an above .500 caliber team.  If they don't get 6 wins from this division this year then they are not the team I think they are.  They have some tough games on the schedule this year (i.e., Green Bay) but I think at worst I push the 10.

New York Jets - Over 8.5

Everyone seems to be down on the Jets and I'm not really sure why.  Actually I'm pretty sure I know why and it has to do with Tim Tebow being on the roster.  He's dominated the off-season news for the Jets and it makes them look like nothing else happened.  But they got quicker on both offense and defense and it's my expectation that Mark Sanchez puts it together and has a good year.  I said before I saw what Vegas had their win total at that I see a 10-6 team.

San Francisco 49ers - Over 9.5

With the NFL the way it is now it really wouldn't surprise me to see San Fran take a step back to being a 8-8 team.  But like I said above with Arizona.  The NFC West is a pretty weak division.  I think Seattle is the only real team that could even finish 8-8 there this year.  5-1 through the division seems likely and with their defense going 5-5 against the rest of their schedule seems doable.

Tennessee Titans - Under 7.5

There was a time I wouldn't touch the under with Tennessee when Jeff Fisher was there.  But these Titans are resting their hopes on Jake Locker and Chris Johnson finding his form again.  It's not a strong division but there is nothing about this team that excites me.

Washington Redskins - Under 6

The NFC is arguably the best division in football and Washington is easily the worst team in it.  RGIII will be exciting but they have no weapons around him.  Throw it trips to Pittsburgh, New Orleans and the Giants and games against Atlanta and Baltimore, I just don't see too many wins on their schedule.

Super Bowl XLVI - The Pick

Late on January 22nd after Lawrence Tynes kicked the Giants in to the Super Bowl I was in a group text with a couple of my friends who are Giants fans and I wrote, "You'll beat the Pats. I'm pretty sure of it." Then I found out the Giants were dogs against the Pats so I preceded to talk about taking the Giants moneyline or taking an adjusted line to where they are giving points so I get better odds.

Two weeks later I'm still confident the Giants are going to win the game but look at my pick history this year. I was 15-19-1 in Bowl Games and 3-7 on the NFL Playoffs. I was pretty confident in most of those too. When debating who to take in this game my confidence in the Giants is under the "Cons" side of my list.

There is another reason that I'm starting to lean the Patriots way as well. As a Jets fan I know first hand that the chattier team never wins. If I'm a Giants fan I'm not happy with Jason Pierre Paul telling Tom Brady he's not a God. I'm not happy with Chris Canty telling Giants fans to get ready for a parade. Tom Coughlin can still try to play the "We're still the underdogs" but his players obviously don't think so. Even though the Pats are favored I really think they are the one's who should be playing that card. I've seen very few people picking the Pats to win.

So it turns out that I went from complete confidence in what my bet was going to be to probably laying off and rolling with my props. But if I have to go on record I think I'm going to go for the 0-4 against the Giants.

The Pick: Patriots -3(even)

Super Bowl XLVI - I'm Giving You Props

Sportsbook.com has 18 pages of prop bets. I never do prop bets during the year but I do enjoy dabbling in props for the Super Bowl and the NCAA Final Four. Here are a few of the props I'm looking at this year:

Team to Receive the Opening Kick Off: Giants (-260)

I normally don't like props with those type of odds but it was brought to my attention that the Pats have deferred every coin toss they've won since Brady tore his ACL and the Giants have elected to receive every time they won. I don't see much downside.

First Score of the Game will be: Any Other Score (+155)

I know the offensive coordinators have had two weeks to script the first 20 plays or how ever many plays OCs script to start a game but if I'm under the impression that the Giants are getting the ball first, Because the Giants OC is Kevin Gilbride I think they have the better chance of stalling out and kicking a field goal on their first drive. And other than that, it's not like these two teams score a TD on EVERY drive. It seems worth the risk.

Giants - Will they Convert a 4th Down Attempt: Yes (+150)

As good as Steve Weatherford is at pinning teams down inside the 20, there is going to be a point in this game where Coughlin would rather trust his offense than give the ball back to the Pats offense. The only question is, will they make the mistake of giving to Jacobs on these attempts...

Patriots - Will they Convert a 4th Down Attempt: Yes (+120)

Replace the following: Steve Weatherford for Zoltan Mesko, Coughlin for Belichick and remove the last sentence from the above paragraph.

Brandon Jacobs - Total Rushing Yards: Under 29.5 (-115)

In their meeting earlier in the year Jacobs did have a decent game going for 72 yards and TD but Ahmad Bradshaw didn't play. So figure this time around Jacobs' carries will be down to around the 5-8 mark. There is always a chance that Jacobs can get to the linebackers and churn out a few 5-10 yard runs but with Wilfork in the middle, whatever running success the Giants have is going to be on the edges and those yards are going to go to Bradshaw. Any carries I see Jacobs getting are going to be soften up the veteran Patriots DL. Even 7 carries at his season average isn't getting him to 29.5.

Travis Beckum - Total Receptions: Over 1.5 (+115)

For a large part of the year Beckum has been an offensive non-factor. But he has been targeted 7 times over the last 2 games. I love bets like this. They are just fun to root for.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis - Total Rushing Attempts: 13 (even)

Green-Ellis has only reached at least 13 carries in 8 out of 18 games this year. But what I like about this bet for even money is that BGE has never fumbled in his career. In the Super Bowl, I don't see how a guy with that kind of ball security doesn't get a lion's share of the carries. He's their goal line back so he won't lose out on carries there and in the event the Pats are up late trying to salt the clock away that's the guy that's going to get the carries.

Danny Woodhead - Total Receptions: Over 1.5 (even)

I'm going to hold out betting this one until I get a better idea of Gronkowski's status. I have no doubt he's going to play but there is no question he's going to be limited. In Brady's last 3 Super Bowls running backs have caught 18 passes. Granted, Woodhead isn't Kevin Faulk but if any of the RBs are going to be targeted in the passing game it's going to be Woodhead. Like the Beckham prop above, 2 catches seems so easy here.

NFL Championship Weekend Picks

BALTIMORE AT NEW ENGLAND

Line: New England -7

I'm 3-5 in these games. I'm done putting a lot of thought in to them. I'm going with my gut now. Baltimore looked awful last week. New England will put points up on anyone. Baltimore went up there and beat New England in embarrassing fashion two years ago in the playoffs and the Pats can use that as extra motivation. I think alot of pressure has been put on Joe Flacco and I don't think he's the type of QB who will react well to it. I agree with his critics, he's a passenger on this team. I think the Pats go up a few scores and don't take the foot off the Ravens throats until it's 00:00.

The Pick: New England -7

NEW YORK GIANTS at SAN FRANCISCO

Line: San Francisco -2.5

The Giants are peaking at the right time. I throw out all previous games and all previous stats. They don't mean anything at this point. They are a different team now. That doesn't mean I'm not taking San Fran though. As much credit as I give the Giants, there are not many teams in the NFL who wouldn't have beat the last three teams they faced with the way they showed up. I've mentioned Dallas in my Giants/Atlanta write up and I mentioned Atlanta in my Giants/Green Bay write up. This week it's Green Bay. There were at least 14 completions left on the field by Green Bay last week. And I'm talking unforced errors. Rodgers missing guys 25 yards downfield, 8 or 9 drops, etc. It was just a terrible performance. The one thing I like about the 49ers is that they don't throw up clunkers. The Giants are going to get a team's best for the first time in a month. And in that case, I'm taking the home team.

The Pick: San Francisco -2.5

2012 NFL Divisional Round Playoff Picks

I know after a 1-3 Wild Card Weekend people have been refreshing this page waiting for my Divisional Round picks.

Here we go:

NEW ORLEANS AT SAN FRANCISCO

Line: New Orleans -4

New Orleans is the sexy team right now. They've averaged over 42 points a game in their last three (all in domes FYI). When people think about the Saints they think 40+ points a game. But look at their point totals on the road: 34, 23, 30, 20, 22, 21(dome), 26(dome), and 42(dome). That's 27.25 points a game (25.8 in outdoor road games). And San Francisco, by the way, scores 27.6 points a game at home and has a top 5 defense. Not it wouldn't shock me if New Orleans won but don't think for a second we're looking at a 42-20 type game. If New Orleans wins it'll be more like 24-20. Have to take the points for the home team.

The Pick: San Francisco +4

DENVER AT NEW ENGLAND

Line: New England -13.5

New England's defense isn't good but I don't think it's as bad as advertised. For some reason they come out flat but if you look close games they were in, they clamped down in the second half. I think Denver will be able to move the ball but ultimately New England will get the 2nd half stops to pull away a little. That being said, much like I thought with the Lions/Saints game last week. I think this is going to be a 10-11 point game that only looked that close because of a garbage touchdown.

The Pick: Denver +13.5

HOUSTON AT BALTIMORE

Line: Baltimore -7.5

This is the toughest game for me to pick. When you think about Baltimore you immediately associate them with defense. Houston is starting a rookie quarterback so it's not out of the realm of possibility that Baltimore could blow Houston out. On the flip side, Houston's defense was actually slightly better that Baltimore and Houston can run the ball as good as anyone. At 7.5 points I'm betting more that we'll be seeing a 14-10 game than a Baltimore double digit win.

The Pick: Houston +7.5

NEW YORK GIANTS AT GREEN BAY

Line: Green Bay -7.5

I really wish this was a 7 point line. It's be alot easier for me to take Green Bay. The Giants are peaking at the right time and 2007 is still fresh in people's minds with the Giants having played Green Bay tightly earlier in the year (a la New England in 07). The Giants will get to Rodgers a few times. He's been sacked 41 times this year. On Chad Millman's blog a good point was raised, a few weeks ago when these two teams played Green Bay was a 7 point favorite in New York. Now it's essentially the same spread six weeks later after Green Bay has had an extra week off to get healthy? I can't take all four dogs...

The Pick: Green Bay -7.5

NFL Wild Card Round Picks

Sorry. I don't want to make this a picks dominated blog but it's just that season.

Cincinnati at Houston

Line: Houston -4

I see this being a pretty low scoring game. I'm going under the assumption at this point that T.J. Yates is starting and not Jake Delhomme. If it was Delhomme I'd be done typing this game already. Both teams have a good defense but Houston's is better and they are at home. I do think they will win this game and it doesn't leave me much margin of error but I think this is a field goal game. 17-14ish. Cincinnati is scrappy. That's why they are here.

The Pick: Cincinnati +4

Detroit at New Orleans

Line: New Orleans -10.5

The Saints are a near impossible out at home. In the Super Dome they are going to put up 45 points. That's great for me because the Lions are going to put up 38. The Lions are built to play in a dome as well. This game is a back door cover waiting to happen.

The Pick: Detroit + 10.5

Atlanta at New York Giants

Line: New York Giants -3

The Giants are playing better but it wasn't too long ago that the Giants couldn't stop the pass. And I don't believe that a game against a terrible Jets offense and a Cowboys team who still hasn't shown up for their Week 17 game should change anyone's mind about that. Atlanta has a ton of weapons and should be able to use them all against the Giants. The Giants will get to Matt Ryan a few times but you can't sack him on every drop back. The Giants have a good passing offense and a lot of weapons as well but Atlanta is solid against the run allowing less than 100 yards a game. I was leaning towards the Giants when it was supposed to be cold but it's supposed to be a picture perfect 45-50 degree day.

The Pick: Atlanta +3

Pittsburgh at Denver

Line: +8.5

I don't see a way that the Broncos score in this game. The Steelers are going to make Tim Tebow throw but that's not going to go well for. The bloom is off the rose with Tebow. Denver backed in and Tebow started doing something he wasn't doing during their run which is turn the ball over. All that being said, with Big Ben banged up I can see Pittsburgh getting a two score lead and just putting it cruise control. The Broncos defense is good as well and they are at home so Pittsburgh won't run away with it. I'm thinking like a 13-6 or 17-9 final. The Over/Under is 33. I'll probably take the under as well.

The Pick: Denver +8.5