Thursday, February 2, 2012

Super Bowl XLVI - I'm Giving You Props has 18 pages of prop bets. I never do prop bets during the year but I do enjoy dabbling in props for the Super Bowl and the NCAA Final Four. Here are a few of the props I'm looking at this year:

Team to Receive the Opening Kick Off: Giants (-260)

I normally don't like props with those type of odds but it was brought to my attention that the Pats have deferred every coin toss they've won since Brady tore his ACL and the Giants have elected to receive every time they won. I don't see much downside.

First Score of the Game will be: Any Other Score (+155)

I know the offensive coordinators have had two weeks to script the first 20 plays or how ever many plays OCs script to start a game but if I'm under the impression that the Giants are getting the ball first, Because the Giants OC is Kevin Gilbride I think they have the better chance of stalling out and kicking a field goal on their first drive. And other than that, it's not like these two teams score a TD on EVERY drive. It seems worth the risk.

Giants - Will they Convert a 4th Down Attempt: Yes (+150)

As good as Steve Weatherford is at pinning teams down inside the 20, there is going to be a point in this game where Coughlin would rather trust his offense than give the ball back to the Pats offense. The only question is, will they make the mistake of giving to Jacobs on these attempts...

Patriots - Will they Convert a 4th Down Attempt: Yes (+120)

Replace the following: Steve Weatherford for Zoltan Mesko, Coughlin for Belichick and remove the last sentence from the above paragraph.

Brandon Jacobs - Total Rushing Yards: Under 29.5 (-115)

In their meeting earlier in the year Jacobs did have a decent game going for 72 yards and TD but Ahmad Bradshaw didn't play. So figure this time around Jacobs' carries will be down to around the 5-8 mark. There is always a chance that Jacobs can get to the linebackers and churn out a few 5-10 yard runs but with Wilfork in the middle, whatever running success the Giants have is going to be on the edges and those yards are going to go to Bradshaw. Any carries I see Jacobs getting are going to be soften up the veteran Patriots DL. Even 7 carries at his season average isn't getting him to 29.5.

Travis Beckum - Total Receptions: Over 1.5 (+115)

For a large part of the year Beckum has been an offensive non-factor. But he has been targeted 7 times over the last 2 games. I love bets like this. They are just fun to root for.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis - Total Rushing Attempts: 13 (even)

Green-Ellis has only reached at least 13 carries in 8 out of 18 games this year. But what I like about this bet for even money is that BGE has never fumbled in his career. In the Super Bowl, I don't see how a guy with that kind of ball security doesn't get a lion's share of the carries. He's their goal line back so he won't lose out on carries there and in the event the Pats are up late trying to salt the clock away that's the guy that's going to get the carries.

Danny Woodhead - Total Receptions: Over 1.5 (even)

I'm going to hold out betting this one until I get a better idea of Gronkowski's status. I have no doubt he's going to play but there is no question he's going to be limited. In Brady's last 3 Super Bowls running backs have caught 18 passes. Granted, Woodhead isn't Kevin Faulk but if any of the RBs are going to be targeted in the passing game it's going to be Woodhead. Like the Beckham prop above, 2 catches seems so easy here.

1 comment:

  1. Wow - this is pretty awesome analysis. You have me convinced on everyone. Maybe prop bets are a good way for me to wager a bit on this particular game. Couldn't possibly bet on outcome.