Late on January 22nd after Lawrence Tynes kicked the Giants in to the Super Bowl I was in a group text with a couple of my friends who are Giants fans and I wrote, "You'll beat the Pats. I'm pretty sure of it." Then I found out the Giants were dogs against the Pats so I preceded to talk about taking the Giants moneyline or taking an adjusted line to where they are giving points so I get better odds.
Two weeks later I'm still confident the Giants are going to win the game but look at my pick history this year. I was 15-19-1 in Bowl Games and 3-7 on the NFL Playoffs. I was pretty confident in most of those too. When debating who to take in this game my confidence in the Giants is under the "Cons" side of my list.
There is another reason that I'm starting to lean the Patriots way as well. As a Jets fan I know first hand that the chattier team never wins. If I'm a Giants fan I'm not happy with Jason Pierre Paul telling Tom Brady he's not a God. I'm not happy with Chris Canty telling Giants fans to get ready for a parade. Tom Coughlin can still try to play the "We're still the underdogs" but his players obviously don't think so. Even though the Pats are favored I really think they are the one's who should be playing that card. I've seen very few people picking the Pats to win.
So it turns out that I went from complete confidence in what my bet was going to be to probably laying off and rolling with my props. But if I have to go on record I think I'm going to go for the 0-4 against the Giants.
The Pick: Patriots -3(even)