Friday, January 13, 2012

2012 NFL Divisional Round Playoff Picks

I know after a 1-3 Wild Card Weekend people have been refreshing this page waiting for my Divisional Round picks.

Here we go:

Line: New Orleans -4

New Orleans is the sexy team right now. They've averaged over 42 points a game in their last three (all in domes FYI). When people think about the Saints they think 40+ points a game. But look at their point totals on the road: 34, 23, 30, 20, 22, 21(dome), 26(dome), and 42(dome). That's 27.25 points a game (25.8 in outdoor road games). And San Francisco, by the way, scores 27.6 points a game at home and has a top 5 defense. Not it wouldn't shock me if New Orleans won but don't think for a second we're looking at a 42-20 type game. If New Orleans wins it'll be more like 24-20. Have to take the points for the home team.

The Pick: San Francisco +4

Line: New England -13.5

New England's defense isn't good but I don't think it's as bad as advertised. For some reason they come out flat but if you look close games they were in, they clamped down in the second half. I think Denver will be able to move the ball but ultimately New England will get the 2nd half stops to pull away a little. That being said, much like I thought with the Lions/Saints game last week. I think this is going to be a 10-11 point game that only looked that close because of a garbage touchdown.

The Pick: Denver +13.5

Line: Baltimore -7.5

This is the toughest game for me to pick. When you think about Baltimore you immediately associate them with defense. Houston is starting a rookie quarterback so it's not out of the realm of possibility that Baltimore could blow Houston out. On the flip side, Houston's defense was actually slightly better that Baltimore and Houston can run the ball as good as anyone. At 7.5 points I'm betting more that we'll be seeing a 14-10 game than a Baltimore double digit win.

The Pick: Houston +7.5

Line: Green Bay -7.5

I really wish this was a 7 point line. It's be alot easier for me to take Green Bay. The Giants are peaking at the right time and 2007 is still fresh in people's minds with the Giants having played Green Bay tightly earlier in the year (a la New England in 07). The Giants will get to Rodgers a few times. He's been sacked 41 times this year. On Chad Millman's blog a good point was raised, a few weeks ago when these two teams played Green Bay was a 7 point favorite in New York. Now it's essentially the same spread six weeks later after Green Bay has had an extra week off to get healthy? I can't take all four dogs...

The Pick: Green Bay -7.5

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