NFL Divisional Round Playoff Picks

Since it went so well last week, I'm going to give my picks for the NFL Divisional Round too!

Baltimore (+10) at Denver

Is it weird that despite Peyton Manning probably being the league MVP this year and an overall 13-3 record and being 7-1 at home, I still don't buy Denver as a Super Bowl team?  Don't get me wrong, I think they are winning this game but Baltimore is so seasoned and in the playoffs every year.  I don't see them getting handily beaten.  And I know that Peyton has been to two Super Bowls and won one of them but pass the Wild Card round of the playoffs and Peyton Manning is a 6-6 QB with a 16:13 TD to INT ratio.

The Pick: Baltimore +10

Green Bay (+3) at San Francisco

I have to take Green Bay.  For me it boils down to Aaron Rodgers in revenge mode.  He grew up here, he was passed over by San Fran.  I like what Kaepernick brings to the table as a QB but it's his first career playoff start.  I don't like the spot for San Fran here even at home.

The Pick: Green Bay (+3)

Seattle at Atlanta (-2.5)

I kind of thought Seattle would be getting a little bit more than 2.5.  I hate betting on Atlanta in the playoffs.  For the purposes of making picks on a blog nobody reads, I don't believe in buying points here so I can't take an average road team in the playoffs getting less that a Field Goal.  I really want to root for Seattle so I may lay off this one.  I'm scared if I take Seattle that I'm doing as a bandwagon rider.

The Pick: Atlanta (-2.5)

Houston at New England (-9.5)

Houston looks like a shell of their earlier season self.  I can't imagine they are going to give New England anything they can't handle.  Matt Schaub looks shaky lately and if New England's defense has a strength it's that it's pretty decent against the run.  I'm glad this is the last game of the weekend.  Usually I'm trying to navigate giving my kids a bath and watching the end of the 4:00pm Sunday games.  I have a feeling I'll be comfortable tuning out by the end of this one.

The Pick: New England -9.5

Playoffs: 1-3
(although I would have switched the Minnesota pick over to Green Bay once Ponder was out. But I'll own the loss.)

NFL Wildcard Weekend Picks

I'm getting back in the picks game!!!

Cincinnati (+4.5) at Houston

I don't like the way Houston finished up the year.  Losing 3 out of 4 to close it out, albeit against all playoff teams, doesn't sit well with me.  Cincinnati on the other hand already essentially played a playoff game this year.  Week 16 in Pittsburgh was pretty much a loser goes home game and they won.  Also, if you look at Cincinnati's 6 losses, other than Week 1, they don't get blown out.  Take away that 31 point loss away and their average losing margin in their other 5 losses is only 6 points per loss.  I think this is a field goal game in either direction.

The Pick: Cincinnati


Minnesota (+8) at Green Bay

Like Cincinnati, Minnesota has already played in playoff games this year.  I hate when teams play in Week 17 and then again the next week in the playoffs.  I don't think Minnesota is intimidated by Green Bay.  Other than the win last week, the lost at Green Bay in early December by single digits.  And check this out:

Green Bay is that big purple slice!  I know the Packers, Lions and Bears are going to have the biggest pieces of the pie here but Green Bay can not stop Adrian Peterson.  20% of his total rushing yards is a pretty big chunk.  Another reason I like Minnesota to cover is because Minnesota is 5th in the NFL in sacks and Aaron Rodgers gets sacked more than any QB in the NFL.  Green Bay should win but Minnesota isn't a great matchup for them.

The Pick: Minnesota

Indianapolis at Baltimore (-7)

I would not place money on this game.  I hate when teams rest their starters in Week 17 which is what Baltimore did last week but for this game I'm going with my gut.  Despite 11 wins on the season, the Colts don't look like a playoff team to me.  Baltimore is in the playoffs every year, they are seasoned and they are home.  I think they win this game by double digits.  I won't be putting money on that though because I'm also a believer in story book endings in sports.  The Andrew Luck and Chuck Pagano running story lines through the season have scared me off.

The Pick: Baltimore

Seattle (-3) at Washington

I'm aware that Seattle is a different team away from home and that the Redskins have gone on a borderline magical run to win the NFC East.  But even with all that, I think Seattle is the superior team and with RGIII banged up, I'm taking the road favorite.

The Pick: Seattle

NFL Championship Weekend Picks

BALTIMORE AT NEW ENGLAND

Line: New England -7

I'm 3-5 in these games. I'm done putting a lot of thought in to them. I'm going with my gut now. Baltimore looked awful last week. New England will put points up on anyone. Baltimore went up there and beat New England in embarrassing fashion two years ago in the playoffs and the Pats can use that as extra motivation. I think alot of pressure has been put on Joe Flacco and I don't think he's the type of QB who will react well to it. I agree with his critics, he's a passenger on this team. I think the Pats go up a few scores and don't take the foot off the Ravens throats until it's 00:00.

The Pick: New England -7

NEW YORK GIANTS at SAN FRANCISCO

Line: San Francisco -2.5

The Giants are peaking at the right time. I throw out all previous games and all previous stats. They don't mean anything at this point. They are a different team now. That doesn't mean I'm not taking San Fran though. As much credit as I give the Giants, there are not many teams in the NFL who wouldn't have beat the last three teams they faced with the way they showed up. I've mentioned Dallas in my Giants/Atlanta write up and I mentioned Atlanta in my Giants/Green Bay write up. This week it's Green Bay. There were at least 14 completions left on the field by Green Bay last week. And I'm talking unforced errors. Rodgers missing guys 25 yards downfield, 8 or 9 drops, etc. It was just a terrible performance. The one thing I like about the 49ers is that they don't throw up clunkers. The Giants are going to get a team's best for the first time in a month. And in that case, I'm taking the home team.

The Pick: San Francisco -2.5

2012 NFL Divisional Round Playoff Picks

I know after a 1-3 Wild Card Weekend people have been refreshing this page waiting for my Divisional Round picks.

Here we go:

NEW ORLEANS AT SAN FRANCISCO

Line: New Orleans -4

New Orleans is the sexy team right now. They've averaged over 42 points a game in their last three (all in domes FYI). When people think about the Saints they think 40+ points a game. But look at their point totals on the road: 34, 23, 30, 20, 22, 21(dome), 26(dome), and 42(dome). That's 27.25 points a game (25.8 in outdoor road games). And San Francisco, by the way, scores 27.6 points a game at home and has a top 5 defense. Not it wouldn't shock me if New Orleans won but don't think for a second we're looking at a 42-20 type game. If New Orleans wins it'll be more like 24-20. Have to take the points for the home team.

The Pick: San Francisco +4

DENVER AT NEW ENGLAND

Line: New England -13.5

New England's defense isn't good but I don't think it's as bad as advertised. For some reason they come out flat but if you look close games they were in, they clamped down in the second half. I think Denver will be able to move the ball but ultimately New England will get the 2nd half stops to pull away a little. That being said, much like I thought with the Lions/Saints game last week. I think this is going to be a 10-11 point game that only looked that close because of a garbage touchdown.

The Pick: Denver +13.5

HOUSTON AT BALTIMORE

Line: Baltimore -7.5

This is the toughest game for me to pick. When you think about Baltimore you immediately associate them with defense. Houston is starting a rookie quarterback so it's not out of the realm of possibility that Baltimore could blow Houston out. On the flip side, Houston's defense was actually slightly better that Baltimore and Houston can run the ball as good as anyone. At 7.5 points I'm betting more that we'll be seeing a 14-10 game than a Baltimore double digit win.

The Pick: Houston +7.5

NEW YORK GIANTS AT GREEN BAY

Line: Green Bay -7.5

I really wish this was a 7 point line. It's be alot easier for me to take Green Bay. The Giants are peaking at the right time and 2007 is still fresh in people's minds with the Giants having played Green Bay tightly earlier in the year (a la New England in 07). The Giants will get to Rodgers a few times. He's been sacked 41 times this year. On Chad Millman's blog a good point was raised, a few weeks ago when these two teams played Green Bay was a 7 point favorite in New York. Now it's essentially the same spread six weeks later after Green Bay has had an extra week off to get healthy? I can't take all four dogs...

The Pick: Green Bay -7.5