NFL Divisional Round Playoff Picks

Since it went so well last week, I'm going to give my picks for the NFL Divisional Round too!

Baltimore (+10) at Denver

Is it weird that despite Peyton Manning probably being the league MVP this year and an overall 13-3 record and being 7-1 at home, I still don't buy Denver as a Super Bowl team?  Don't get me wrong, I think they are winning this game but Baltimore is so seasoned and in the playoffs every year.  I don't see them getting handily beaten.  And I know that Peyton has been to two Super Bowls and won one of them but pass the Wild Card round of the playoffs and Peyton Manning is a 6-6 QB with a 16:13 TD to INT ratio.

The Pick: Baltimore +10

Green Bay (+3) at San Francisco

I have to take Green Bay.  For me it boils down to Aaron Rodgers in revenge mode.  He grew up here, he was passed over by San Fran.  I like what Kaepernick brings to the table as a QB but it's his first career playoff start.  I don't like the spot for San Fran here even at home.

The Pick: Green Bay (+3)

Seattle at Atlanta (-2.5)

I kind of thought Seattle would be getting a little bit more than 2.5.  I hate betting on Atlanta in the playoffs.  For the purposes of making picks on a blog nobody reads, I don't believe in buying points here so I can't take an average road team in the playoffs getting less that a Field Goal.  I really want to root for Seattle so I may lay off this one.  I'm scared if I take Seattle that I'm doing as a bandwagon rider.

The Pick: Atlanta (-2.5)

Houston at New England (-9.5)

Houston looks like a shell of their earlier season self.  I can't imagine they are going to give New England anything they can't handle.  Matt Schaub looks shaky lately and if New England's defense has a strength it's that it's pretty decent against the run.  I'm glad this is the last game of the weekend.  Usually I'm trying to navigate giving my kids a bath and watching the end of the 4:00pm Sunday games.  I have a feeling I'll be comfortable tuning out by the end of this one.

The Pick: New England -9.5

Playoffs: 1-3
(although I would have switched the Minnesota pick over to Green Bay once Ponder was out. But I'll own the loss.)

NFL Wildcard Weekend Picks

I'm getting back in the picks game!!!

Cincinnati (+4.5) at Houston

I don't like the way Houston finished up the year.  Losing 3 out of 4 to close it out, albeit against all playoff teams, doesn't sit well with me.  Cincinnati on the other hand already essentially played a playoff game this year.  Week 16 in Pittsburgh was pretty much a loser goes home game and they won.  Also, if you look at Cincinnati's 6 losses, other than Week 1, they don't get blown out.  Take away that 31 point loss away and their average losing margin in their other 5 losses is only 6 points per loss.  I think this is a field goal game in either direction.

The Pick: Cincinnati


Minnesota (+8) at Green Bay

Like Cincinnati, Minnesota has already played in playoff games this year.  I hate when teams play in Week 17 and then again the next week in the playoffs.  I don't think Minnesota is intimidated by Green Bay.  Other than the win last week, the lost at Green Bay in early December by single digits.  And check this out:

Green Bay is that big purple slice!  I know the Packers, Lions and Bears are going to have the biggest pieces of the pie here but Green Bay can not stop Adrian Peterson.  20% of his total rushing yards is a pretty big chunk.  Another reason I like Minnesota to cover is because Minnesota is 5th in the NFL in sacks and Aaron Rodgers gets sacked more than any QB in the NFL.  Green Bay should win but Minnesota isn't a great matchup for them.

The Pick: Minnesota

Indianapolis at Baltimore (-7)

I would not place money on this game.  I hate when teams rest their starters in Week 17 which is what Baltimore did last week but for this game I'm going with my gut.  Despite 11 wins on the season, the Colts don't look like a playoff team to me.  Baltimore is in the playoffs every year, they are seasoned and they are home.  I think they win this game by double digits.  I won't be putting money on that though because I'm also a believer in story book endings in sports.  The Andrew Luck and Chuck Pagano running story lines through the season have scared me off.

The Pick: Baltimore

Seattle (-3) at Washington

I'm aware that Seattle is a different team away from home and that the Redskins have gone on a borderline magical run to win the NFC East.  But even with all that, I think Seattle is the superior team and with RGIII banged up, I'm taking the road favorite.

The Pick: Seattle