Friday, January 4, 2013

NFL Wildcard Weekend Picks

I'm getting back in the picks game!!!

Cincinnati (+4.5) at Houston

I don't like the way Houston finished up the year.  Losing 3 out of 4 to close it out, albeit against all playoff teams, doesn't sit well with me.  Cincinnati on the other hand already essentially played a playoff game this year.  Week 16 in Pittsburgh was pretty much a loser goes home game and they won.  Also, if you look at Cincinnati's 6 losses, other than Week 1, they don't get blown out.  Take away that 31 point loss away and their average losing margin in their other 5 losses is only 6 points per loss.  I think this is a field goal game in either direction.

The Pick: Cincinnati

Minnesota (+8) at Green Bay

Like Cincinnati, Minnesota has already played in playoff games this year.  I hate when teams play in Week 17 and then again the next week in the playoffs.  I don't think Minnesota is intimidated by Green Bay.  Other than the win last week, the lost at Green Bay in early December by single digits.  And check this out:

Green Bay is that big purple slice!  I know the Packers, Lions and Bears are going to have the biggest pieces of the pie here but Green Bay can not stop Adrian Peterson.  20% of his total rushing yards is a pretty big chunk.  Another reason I like Minnesota to cover is because Minnesota is 5th in the NFL in sacks and Aaron Rodgers gets sacked more than any QB in the NFL.  Green Bay should win but Minnesota isn't a great matchup for them.

The Pick: Minnesota

Indianapolis at Baltimore (-7)

I would not place money on this game.  I hate when teams rest their starters in Week 17 which is what Baltimore did last week but for this game I'm going with my gut.  Despite 11 wins on the season, the Colts don't look like a playoff team to me.  Baltimore is in the playoffs every year, they are seasoned and they are home.  I think they win this game by double digits.  I won't be putting money on that though because I'm also a believer in story book endings in sports.  The Andrew Luck and Chuck Pagano running story lines through the season have scared me off.

The Pick: Baltimore

Seattle (-3) at Washington

I'm aware that Seattle is a different team away from home and that the Redskins have gone on a borderline magical run to win the NFC East.  But even with all that, I think Seattle is the superior team and with RGIII banged up, I'm taking the road favorite.

The Pick: Seattle

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