2014 NCAA Tournament - Bracket Ramblings I

For the first time ever I did not fill out my brackets right away.  I sat with them for a day and thought about the games and even tried to analyse them.  That's a big departure from my usual "get the brackets, devour the brackets" method that I've employed since I started filling them out.  I'm a believer in only doing one bracket and once it's filled out I'm not second guessing myself and changing anything.

That's the last time I do that.

This year I filled out my brackets after I watched countless shows with analysts telling me their Final Fours.  Because of this, my selection process changed from who I think is going to win to "I don't want to pick the same thing as everyone else."  So instead of having Michigan State win the national title like I had planned to do for weeks, I'm now the sucker who will be ripping up his brackets after Iowa State loses to North Carolina or Providence and my champion is out.  I've loved Iowa State all year.  I think they are a Final Four caliber team but, come on, Iowa State doesn't win national titles.  I just didn't want to have the same thing as everyone else.  But that's not the spirit of doing brackets.  It's fill them out as accurately as you can.  It's going to be some kind of variation of Michigan State, Florida, Louisville, Kansas, Michigan and Arizona playing for the national title.  I know that.  We don't live in a world where we are watching Iowa State/Wisconsin on the final Monday.

Next year I go back to normal.  Fill them out immediately.  No outside influence.  Go Cyclones.

My NCAA Bracket Thoughts

-One of the two most talked about topics is Louisville getting a 4 seed.  I personally had them as a 3 seed but I have little problem with a 4.  There really isn't that big of a difference.  The American Athletic Conference was not a very good conference.  Sure, it was top heavy but 40% of the conference fell below the 150 RPI line and a 5th team (Houston) was only a 143.  When half your conference is considered a bad loss you have to make it up in non conference.  Louisville's best non-conference win was Southern Miss who is currently sporting a 3 seed in the NIT.  Their overall non-conference strength of schedule is 159.  They do pass the eyeball test but that can't be reason enough for a two or three seed bump.

-The second most talked about topic is SMU's exclusion from the dance.  Again I have no problem with it.  See above regarding the problems with the AAC and realize that SMU lost to two of those bottom feeders and lost in their first conference tournament game to Houston.  SMU's non conference SOS was 303.  I wouldn't have complained if they did get in, but I'm not up in arms that they didn't.  I had them in over BYU.  BYU got rewarded for playing a tough schedule and a couple of top 50 RPI wins but they are not the same team without Kyle Collinsworth.  They should have been left out with out their second leading scorer, leading assist and rebound guy.

-Ultimately I think the committee did a solid job with who was left in and out of the field.  It was such a weak bubble that you really can't complain with any team that was left out.  I do have some seeding issues like UMass as a 6 seed and Gonzaga as an 8.  There was actually a moment during the bracket reveal where I thought that UMass might be in trouble even making the field.  I thought they should have been in but based on where I saw other A10 teams being seeded, the thought did cross my mind.

-This is a tough year to pick upsets.  Normally there are a few that really stick out to me.  But not this year.  Teams like Stephen F. Austin, NC Central and Manhattan were teams I was looking at pre-bracket reveal that I was targeting to move on with the right match up.  None of those teams got the right match up.  The only lower seed "upsets" I'm probably leaning towards are Providence and Iowa/Tennessee which aren't really upsets to me.

-A lot of people are saying how tough Wichita State's region (Midwest) is.  But that South region is insane.  Without Embiid I don't think Kansas makes it out of the first weekend if they have to play New Mexico but if Florida, Cuse and UCLA were all in different regions they might have all had a shot to get to my Final 4.  Then having VCU and Ohio State sitting there as the 5 and 6 seeds.  It's a brutal region.  Even more so if Kansas can stay alive long enough for Embiid to come back.

-It's interesting to me that Louisville might have to beat Wichita State and Michigan again on it's way to a national title.

-If a 16 seed upsets a 1 this year, is it unreasonable to think Warren Buffet had something to do with fixing a tournament game?  I don't really think there are any live 16 seeds this year though.  Coastal Carolina is technically closer to the arena than Virginia but that's not enough for me to come close to considering it.  If Texas Southern beats Cal Poly then Aaric Murray would be the biggest guy on the floor against Wichita State.  But if that guy could lead his team to a SWAC regular season championship then I'm not banking on him handing Wichita State their first loss of the year.

The Ball is Tipped...College Hoops 2013-2014

Although it doesn't come with the pomp and circumstance of MLB's Opening Day or the anticipation of the first weekend of NFL games, college basketball(and their television partners) seem to be making an effort in recent years to put some quality games together for the opening night slate.  Last year we had Kentucky/Maryland and UConn/Michigan State.  The Syracuse/San Diego State aircraft carrier debacle did put a slight damper on the evening but at least the effort was there.  Compare that to the opening night of games in 2011 where we had Arizona/Valparaiso, St. John's/William & Mary and Mississippi State/Eastern Kentucky.  That was it.  Even as a die hard college basketball fan those three games don't really move the needle (although as a die hard St. John's fan, it moved mine).

This year it looks like(on paper) that there are even more watchable games on tap for opening night.  Everyone is talking about UConn/Maryland, Oregon/Georgetown and Duke/Davidson.  I'm looking at three lesser talked about games that I think should be interesting watches:

-Boston College at Providence:  This is an under the radar game no one is talking about.  I'm very high on Providence.  Brandon Austin is one of the early front runners for Big East Rookie of the Year so his suspension hurts some but this team returns the Kadeem Betts, LaDontae Henton, Kris Dunn and leading scorer Bryce Cotton.  And once they get Austin back, that's a formidable starting five.  I haven't seen them picked higher than 6th in the Big East.  It wouldn't shock me at all if they finish in the top half of the conference.  Boston College has a chance to be sneaky good too.  Oliver Hanlan, Ryan Anderson and Joe Rahon are three solid options.  BC has a good chance to finish in the middle of the pack in the ACC which will classify as a pretty good season going forward in that mega conference.  I think we are looking at two teams here that, at worst case, on the NCAA Tournament bubble come march.

-St. John's vs. Wisconsin:  I have no questions about Bo Ryan's ability to coach defense but I am curious as to how defensive oriented teams like Wisconsin handle the new rule changes.  Win or lose this game, Wisconsin will be in the tournament and towards the top of the Big 10.  This is a big game for St. John's and the new Big East.  As much as Steve Lavin is trying to keep the expectations lowered, this is an immensely athletic roster  which should make the NCAA Tournament.  An early season win against a Big 10 power would be a nice statement for the Big East and St. John's.

-Florida Gulf Coast at Nebraska:  I know, I know.  Nebraska has been widely considered the worst team in the Big 10 during the preseason but if you're a college basketball fan and got swept up in Dunk City last March, don't you want to see if Joe Cooley keeps these guys playing with the same style and fearlessness?  Don't you want to see Brett Comer throwing lobs to Chase Fieler?  Aren't you curious to see what the transfers from high majors, Jamail Jones(Marquette) and Nate Hicks(Georgia Tech), add to the team?

Honorable Mention:
-Buffalo at Texas A&M:  The start of the Bobby Hurley era at UB.

NCAA Tournament Play In Game Picks

 I'm all for these NCAA Tournament games on Tuesday and Wednesday.  What I'm not okay with is calling them the "First Round."  To me, they always will and always should be called "Play In" games.  The NCAA is the one bracket with 64 teams on it.  Not 64 lines with 8 other teams shoved in to open nooks and crannies of the bracket. 

While I'm here, I'll also mention that I do believe the Play In games should be all 12 seeds or the last 8 teams in the tournament.  Teams like Liberty, James Madison, LIU-Brooklyn and North Carolina A&T have earned their way in to the field of 64 by winning their conference tournaments.  Teams like Boise State, Middle Tennessee State, LaSalle and St. Mary's didn't do enough to be locks on Selection Sunday and should play on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Wouldn't it make a better night of TV if instead of having a game with two 16 seeds battle it out each night, you added Kentucky, Tennessee, Maryland and Virginia to these play in games? 

All that being said, here are my picks for the tonight and tomorrow's Play In Games:

Liberty (+3) over North Carolina A&T

In picking a game like this you can't go by which team is hotter right now since they both came out of nowhere to win their conference tournaments.  But one thing I look for out of these smaller schools is what's the one thing that each of these teams does best.  In this case, Liberty is good at shooting the three and NC A&T is good at blocking shots.  Liberty is limited offensively in the front court and rely heavily on the three so I don't see NC A&T's interior defense really coming in to play that often.  Also, NC A&T is one of the worst three point shooting teams in the country.  I think this 20 loss fairy tale continues for one more game.

Middle Tennessee State (+3) over St. Mary's

I've gone back and forth on this one.  MTSU has only beaten one team of St. Mary's quality all year and it was at home.  St. Mary's will have the best player on the floor in Matt Dellavedova.  A part of me wants to take St. Mary's because I think he deserves not to have his career end in a play in game.  I also would like to pick St. Mary's so I would have two games to raise my arms above my head and yell "STEVE HOLT!" every time Stephen Holt scores.  But I think MTSU is a bad match up for St. Mary's.  They both are capable three point shooting teams except MTSU defends the three well and St. Mary's does not.  Also, St. Mary's lacks depth and MTSU can run 11 deep at you.  And honestly, a part of me is taking MTSU because in my friend and I's attempt to predict the bracket we had MTSU out in favor of Tennessee.  Usually I take the team I miss to lose in their first game and it never works out for me.

LIU-Brooklyn (-1.5) over James Madison

Jump all over this game now while the line before it moves.  James Madison suspended their best player for the first half of the game for getting arrested this week.  And that is on top of the fact that LIU is the better team anyway.  This is LIU's third consecutive tournament.  Their three best players have participated in the last two.  If the Colonial Tournament wasn't decimated by conference re-alignment and APR sanctions, there is a good chance JMU isn't even here right now. 

Boise State (-1.5) over LaSalle

I went back and forth with this game as well.  I actually changed over to Boise State for the last time while I was in the middle of typing this.  One interesting thing about Boise State is that their losses have usually come when they were massively outscored at the FT line.  Their last few loses were by 6, 4 and 10.  They were outscored at the free throw line by 8, 15 and 14 respectively.  The Mountain West was an outstanding conference this year and Boise played the upper echelon of that conference pretty evenly except for that one area.  LaSalle on the other hand is one of the worst teams in the country at getting to the free throw line.  Now that can be largely due to their reliance on the three point shot.  But as good as LaSalle is at the 3, Boise is actually better.  Wait...I just learned that LaSalle is one of the best teams in the country at defending the three.  I'm stopping before I change again.


I was actually looking for an image of brackets to put at the top of this post.  I did a Google Image search and ended up with more images of the inside of people's mouths than I was comfortable with.

Why Automatic Bids Should Not Be Eliminated - Reaction to Jay Bilas' column

On February 15th, Jay Bilas wrote a column in favor of eliminating automatic bids to the NCAA Tournament.

Jay Bilas writes some form of this column every year. He does it because he thinks the mid-major enthusiasts (I am one myself) view him as a power conference elitist trying to force the mid-majors out of the NCAA Tournament. Then in these columns he essentially says, "Hey look, your precious mid-majors will still be in the tournament! And maybe even more of them!" He's probably right but the whole mid-major argument isn't the part that bothers me. Besides, on his Bilas Index he obviously ranks the teams where he does only to fit his own arguments. The mid-majors are taking care of themselves these days. What Jay Bilas doesn't care about is the low-majors.

For some reason Bilas thinks that because a 1 seed has to play a low-major team in the first round somehow diminishes a championship run. I don't see that at all. He seems to think that having a team like Stanford play Kentucky in the first round instead of a team like Stony Brook automatically fixes that. The 1-16 games are only 4 games of the tournament, so why rob these low major schools of an opportunity for a memory they rightfully earned? I'm all for the 1-16 blow outs if it means I get to watch games like last year's Boston U vs Stony Brook's America East final again. To me that outweighs Boston getting beat down the next week by Kansas. And if you get rid of the automatic bids then what happens to Championship Week? Do conferences stop putting on tournaments? They wouldn't mean anything. What would Boston and Stony Brook have played for last year, a banner? Who's watching that? If you're a college basketball fan and your okay destroying something as great as Championship Week then there is something wrong with you.

Every year a friend and I get together on Selection Sunday and try to accurately predict the bracket and every year it doesn't come down to "I can't believe we left this team out," often times our reaction is "I can't believe we put this team in." So in my eyes, if you can't crack this bracket the way it is now you're probably not more worthwhile than a small school anyway. Leave it alone.

Another One Bites The Dust

I do have a post about the Big East situation coming. I'm waiting until I'm less pissed off.

Pittsburgh and Syracuse Who???

Syracuse and Pitt....you are dead to me

I highly recommend this Dana O'Neil column on ESPN.com. She says it all.