2014 NCAA Tournament - Bracket Ramblings I

For the first time ever I did not fill out my brackets right away.  I sat with them for a day and thought about the games and even tried to analyse them.  That's a big departure from my usual "get the brackets, devour the brackets" method that I've employed since I started filling them out.  I'm a believer in only doing one bracket and once it's filled out I'm not second guessing myself and changing anything.

That's the last time I do that.

This year I filled out my brackets after I watched countless shows with analysts telling me their Final Fours.  Because of this, my selection process changed from who I think is going to win to "I don't want to pick the same thing as everyone else."  So instead of having Michigan State win the national title like I had planned to do for weeks, I'm now the sucker who will be ripping up his brackets after Iowa State loses to North Carolina or Providence and my champion is out.  I've loved Iowa State all year.  I think they are a Final Four caliber team but, come on, Iowa State doesn't win national titles.  I just didn't want to have the same thing as everyone else.  But that's not the spirit of doing brackets.  It's fill them out as accurately as you can.  It's going to be some kind of variation of Michigan State, Florida, Louisville, Kansas, Michigan and Arizona playing for the national title.  I know that.  We don't live in a world where we are watching Iowa State/Wisconsin on the final Monday.

Next year I go back to normal.  Fill them out immediately.  No outside influence.  Go Cyclones.

My NCAA Bracket Thoughts

-One of the two most talked about topics is Louisville getting a 4 seed.  I personally had them as a 3 seed but I have little problem with a 4.  There really isn't that big of a difference.  The American Athletic Conference was not a very good conference.  Sure, it was top heavy but 40% of the conference fell below the 150 RPI line and a 5th team (Houston) was only a 143.  When half your conference is considered a bad loss you have to make it up in non conference.  Louisville's best non-conference win was Southern Miss who is currently sporting a 3 seed in the NIT.  Their overall non-conference strength of schedule is 159.  They do pass the eyeball test but that can't be reason enough for a two or three seed bump.

-The second most talked about topic is SMU's exclusion from the dance.  Again I have no problem with it.  See above regarding the problems with the AAC and realize that SMU lost to two of those bottom feeders and lost in their first conference tournament game to Houston.  SMU's non conference SOS was 303.  I wouldn't have complained if they did get in, but I'm not up in arms that they didn't.  I had them in over BYU.  BYU got rewarded for playing a tough schedule and a couple of top 50 RPI wins but they are not the same team without Kyle Collinsworth.  They should have been left out with out their second leading scorer, leading assist and rebound guy.

-Ultimately I think the committee did a solid job with who was left in and out of the field.  It was such a weak bubble that you really can't complain with any team that was left out.  I do have some seeding issues like UMass as a 6 seed and Gonzaga as an 8.  There was actually a moment during the bracket reveal where I thought that UMass might be in trouble even making the field.  I thought they should have been in but based on where I saw other A10 teams being seeded, the thought did cross my mind.

-This is a tough year to pick upsets.  Normally there are a few that really stick out to me.  But not this year.  Teams like Stephen F. Austin, NC Central and Manhattan were teams I was looking at pre-bracket reveal that I was targeting to move on with the right match up.  None of those teams got the right match up.  The only lower seed "upsets" I'm probably leaning towards are Providence and Iowa/Tennessee which aren't really upsets to me.

-A lot of people are saying how tough Wichita State's region (Midwest) is.  But that South region is insane.  Without Embiid I don't think Kansas makes it out of the first weekend if they have to play New Mexico but if Florida, Cuse and UCLA were all in different regions they might have all had a shot to get to my Final 4.  Then having VCU and Ohio State sitting there as the 5 and 6 seeds.  It's a brutal region.  Even more so if Kansas can stay alive long enough for Embiid to come back.

-It's interesting to me that Louisville might have to beat Wichita State and Michigan again on it's way to a national title.

-If a 16 seed upsets a 1 this year, is it unreasonable to think Warren Buffet had something to do with fixing a tournament game?  I don't really think there are any live 16 seeds this year though.  Coastal Carolina is technically closer to the arena than Virginia but that's not enough for me to come close to considering it.  If Texas Southern beats Cal Poly then Aaric Murray would be the biggest guy on the floor against Wichita State.  But if that guy could lead his team to a SWAC regular season championship then I'm not banking on him handing Wichita State their first loss of the year.

Some Quick Bracket Thoughts

**The "first round" tournament games will always be the play-in-games to me and therefore will be referred to as such.

It's been stated over and over, but Oregon is wildly under seeded.  I understand they got bumped a line for procedural reasons but I don't see how Oregon was not the highest seeded Pac-12 team let alone two seeds lower than Colorado and six seeds lower than UCLA.  They slumped to a 5-4 record after Dominic Artis got hurt but still finished second in the conference regular season and won the tournament.  I honestly thought that once Oregon got a 12, that Cal and Colorado were in trouble.  In the bracket that me and my friend do each year, we had them as a five figuring Arizona and UCLA would be around the 6 or 7 area.  

I'm a big supporter of the mid-majors but I'm still curious as to how Middle Tennessee State is in over Tennessee.  It's fine they had the #6 Strength of Schedule in the country but I think scheduling is only half the battle.  They have to win some of them.  Their best win was at home to Ole Miss (who as a 12 seed might not have made the tournament without Sunday's win).  And not for nothing, look at that schedule and tell me how that's the 6th best in the country.  Don't get me wrong, I'm thrilled for them and honestly am more intrigued by what MTSU can do in this tournament than what a middle of the pack team from a lousy power conference can do.  I'm just surprised is all.

The selection committee says they don't set up potential match-up on purpose.  I don't believe them.  I was actually shocked that with Kansas as a 1 seed and Missouri as a 9 they didn't try to set that up as a potential round of 32 game.  I started thinking, "Hmm.  Maybe they don't set those up on purpose" as they announce Roy Williams could be sitting there facing Kansas in the second round.  Guess they weighed that as more interesting than rekindling an over 100 year rivalry that was killed just this year.

NCAA Tournament - Potentially Live Lower Seeds

Taking a look at the potential of the lower seeds in this year's tournament:

16 Seeds

UNC-Asheville, Mississippi Valley State, Western Kentucky, LIU-Brooklyn, Lamar, Vermont

Most "live" 16 Seed - LIU-Brooklyn

Unfortunately they got Michigan State which is not a great matchup for them (like any 1 seed would) but they have Julian Boyd, Jamal Olasewere, Jason Brickman and C.J. Garner who were all last year and no what it's like to play a giant of a college hoops program. They actually played a decent game against UNC last year. Gave serious consideration to UNC-Asheville. Five upperclassmen scoring in double figures led by Matt Dickey and J.P. Primm.

15 Seeds

Loyola(MD), Lehigh, Norfolk State, Detroit

Most "live" 15 Seed - Lehigh

I feel that Duke is a weak 2-seed this year. Lehigh has some star power in C.J. McCollum where if Lehigh can pull it off it will be on McCollum's back. He's just the type of guy who has potential to become a tournament darling. He will play in the NBA. Detroit is more talented but in taking opponents into account, Kansas is a tougher opponent than Duke. Ray McCallum would be a tournament darling too if they could pull the upset.

14 Seeds

St. Bonaventure, South Dakota State, BYU, Iona, Belmont

Most "live" 14 Seed - Belmont

Belmont has the perfect formula for an upset. They are a high scoring team that as a whole shoots the three well. They've played a giant this year and lost by 1 at Duke and Columbus, Ohio will be alot more friendly environment than Cameron. Take in to account that Georgetown is susceptible to early tournament upsets recently( especially to mid-majors Davidson, Ohio and VCU in their last three tourneys) and I'm taking them to win in my brackets. I gave some thought to Iona. They are more talented than Belmont but they aren't a better team. I'm not sure they get past BYU in the play in game and Marquette is a tougher tournament opponent than Georgetown. The 14's have some good players that can make them all worth looking at in Nate Wolters (SDSU) and Andrew Nicholson (SBU)

13 Seeds

Montana, New Mexico State, Davidson, Ohio

Most "live" 13 Seed - New Mexico State

I'm actually taking Montana and New Mexico State in my brackets (a 14 and two 13's, my bracket will be done quickly) but if I'm picking only one I'm going with New Mexico State. New Mexico State will be able to neutralize Cody Zeller with their size and rebounding ability. They don't shoot the three well but they are a good offensive rebounding team. The thing that kept me from putting Montana largely has to to with Wisconsin.

12 Seeds

Harvard, VCU, Long Beach State, California, South Florida

Most "live" 12 Seed - South Florida

Four out of five of these 12-seeds could win a game or two with the right draw(with California being the team I don't believe in). Unfortunately for Harvard and VCU they drew Vanderbilt and Wichita State. New Mexico won't be able to intimidate Long Beach State after the teams they played this year but missing Larry Anderson for the first game makes me weary. A part of me doesn't think that South Florida should be in the tournament but they play the perfect style to pull off some upsets. They do have trouble scoring but they also play good defense so they should be in tight games.

NCAA Tournament Bracket Reactions

Above is what a friend and I came up with for our projection of what the bracket should be.

As you can see we missed two teams. Iona and California got in over Seton Hall and Tennessee. But we also had 14 teams mis-seeded.

-We chose Seton Hall and Tennessee because they actually beat some people. It looks like the DePaul loss was the dagger for Seton Hall because for me, beating VCU, UConn and Georgetown are better wins than St. Joseph's (Iona's best RPI win) and Oregon (Cal's best RPI win). Tennessee was a reach because it was largely believed that they weren't in the bracket going in to the SEC tournament and would need to play their way in but it was too hard to ignore sweeping Florida and beating UConn and Vandy as well. We didn't have Drexel for the final 2 spots. I love Iona being in the field, I love mid-majors but I just don't think they earned their way in (2 sub-200 RPI losses too). I think this is one of the biggest examples of the selection committee going by the "eye-ball" test that I've ever seen. Cal is only in based on them being in the PAC-12. I'm sure of it.

-I'm not really going to complain too much about seedings but I think Louisville should have jumped Marquette as the 2nd Big East team. We had them as a 2 seed and they got a 4. It seems to me that the committee didn't really weigh the Big East tournament championship. They were probably a 4 seed prior to the tournament anyway.

-Why was St. Louis so comfortably in the tournament as a 9 seed? Other than winning 2 of 3 against Xavier, I don't see where their other good wins came from. And a 198 non-conference schedule doesn't impress me at all. I'm surprised they didn't have to sweat on Selection Sunday.

-I'll admit we underseeded Indiana. I think we were just familiar with Indiana so we didn't dig in to their profile enough. But after looking at them more closely, we were definately wrong. 8-5 against the top 50 is as good as anyone else along that seed line.

-I hate Wichita State and VCU playing in the first round. Two teams I'd really like to root for.

-I will never call the Tuesday and Wednesday games anything other than the "First Four" or "play-in" games. The first round starts on Thursday and the NCAA has to stop kidding themselves.

-It seems this year the selection committee really leaned on the RPI more than I can remember in the past. By the criteria they went by it looks like Marshall was probably closer than we think to a bid since they were the only bubble team with a sub-50 RPI not to make the tournament. It seems like the cutoff was 53 (West Virginia). And that also explains why there are rumors that Oral Roberts was the team that got bumped by St. Bonnie's winning the A10. Their RPI was 55. And back to Iona, theirs was 42 which is literally the only postive number on their profile other than the names on their roster.