Taking a look at the potential of the lower seeds in this year's tournament:
UNC-Asheville, Mississippi Valley State, Western Kentucky, LIU-Brooklyn, Lamar, Vermont
Most "live" 16 Seed - LIU-Brooklyn
Unfortunately they got Michigan State which is not a great matchup for them (like any 1 seed would) but they have Julian Boyd, Jamal Olasewere, Jason Brickman and C.J. Garner who were all last year and no what it's like to play a giant of a college hoops program. They actually played a decent game against UNC last year. Gave serious consideration to UNC-Asheville. Five upperclassmen scoring in double figures led by Matt Dickey and J.P. Primm.
Loyola(MD), Lehigh, Norfolk State, Detroit
Most "live" 15 Seed - Lehigh
I feel that Duke is a weak 2-seed this year. Lehigh has some star power in C.J. McCollum where if Lehigh can pull it off it will be on McCollum's back. He's just the type of guy who has potential to become a tournament darling. He will play in the NBA. Detroit is more talented but in taking opponents into account, Kansas is a tougher opponent than Duke. Ray McCallum would be a tournament darling too if they could pull the upset.
St. Bonaventure, South Dakota State, BYU, Iona, Belmont
Most "live" 14 Seed - Belmont
Belmont has the perfect formula for an upset. They are a high scoring team that as a whole shoots the three well. They've played a giant this year and lost by 1 at Duke and Columbus, Ohio will be alot more friendly environment than Cameron. Take in to account that Georgetown is susceptible to early tournament upsets recently( especially to mid-majors Davidson, Ohio and VCU in their last three tourneys) and I'm taking them to win in my brackets. I gave some thought to Iona. They are more talented than Belmont but they aren't a better team. I'm not sure they get past BYU in the play in game and Marquette is a tougher tournament opponent than Georgetown. The 14's have some good players that can make them all worth looking at in Nate Wolters (SDSU) and Andrew Nicholson (SBU)
Montana, New Mexico State, Davidson, Ohio
Most "live" 13 Seed - New Mexico State
I'm actually taking Montana and New Mexico State in my brackets (a 14 and two 13's, my bracket will be done quickly) but if I'm picking only one I'm going with New Mexico State. New Mexico State will be able to neutralize Cody Zeller with their size and rebounding ability. They don't shoot the three well but they are a good offensive rebounding team. The thing that kept me from putting Montana largely has to to with Wisconsin.
Harvard, VCU, Long Beach State, California, South Florida
Most "live" 12 Seed - South Florida
Four out of five of these 12-seeds could win a game or two with the right draw(with California being the team I don't believe in). Unfortunately for Harvard and VCU they drew Vanderbilt and Wichita State. New Mexico won't be able to intimidate Long Beach State after the teams they played this year but missing Larry Anderson for the first game makes me weary. A part of me doesn't think that South Florida should be in the tournament but they play the perfect style to pull off some upsets. They do have trouble scoring but they also play good defense so they should be in tight games.