Super Bowl XLVI - The Pick

Late on January 22nd after Lawrence Tynes kicked the Giants in to the Super Bowl I was in a group text with a couple of my friends who are Giants fans and I wrote, "You'll beat the Pats. I'm pretty sure of it." Then I found out the Giants were dogs against the Pats so I preceded to talk about taking the Giants moneyline or taking an adjusted line to where they are giving points so I get better odds.

Two weeks later I'm still confident the Giants are going to win the game but look at my pick history this year. I was 15-19-1 in Bowl Games and 3-7 on the NFL Playoffs. I was pretty confident in most of those too. When debating who to take in this game my confidence in the Giants is under the "Cons" side of my list.

There is another reason that I'm starting to lean the Patriots way as well. As a Jets fan I know first hand that the chattier team never wins. If I'm a Giants fan I'm not happy with Jason Pierre Paul telling Tom Brady he's not a God. I'm not happy with Chris Canty telling Giants fans to get ready for a parade. Tom Coughlin can still try to play the "We're still the underdogs" but his players obviously don't think so. Even though the Pats are favored I really think they are the one's who should be playing that card. I've seen very few people picking the Pats to win.

So it turns out that I went from complete confidence in what my bet was going to be to probably laying off and rolling with my props. But if I have to go on record I think I'm going to go for the 0-4 against the Giants.

The Pick: Patriots -3(even)

Super Bowl XLVI - I'm Giving You Props

Sportsbook.com has 18 pages of prop bets. I never do prop bets during the year but I do enjoy dabbling in props for the Super Bowl and the NCAA Final Four. Here are a few of the props I'm looking at this year:

Team to Receive the Opening Kick Off: Giants (-260)

I normally don't like props with those type of odds but it was brought to my attention that the Pats have deferred every coin toss they've won since Brady tore his ACL and the Giants have elected to receive every time they won. I don't see much downside.

First Score of the Game will be: Any Other Score (+155)

I know the offensive coordinators have had two weeks to script the first 20 plays or how ever many plays OCs script to start a game but if I'm under the impression that the Giants are getting the ball first, Because the Giants OC is Kevin Gilbride I think they have the better chance of stalling out and kicking a field goal on their first drive. And other than that, it's not like these two teams score a TD on EVERY drive. It seems worth the risk.

Giants - Will they Convert a 4th Down Attempt: Yes (+150)

As good as Steve Weatherford is at pinning teams down inside the 20, there is going to be a point in this game where Coughlin would rather trust his offense than give the ball back to the Pats offense. The only question is, will they make the mistake of giving to Jacobs on these attempts...

Patriots - Will they Convert a 4th Down Attempt: Yes (+120)

Replace the following: Steve Weatherford for Zoltan Mesko, Coughlin for Belichick and remove the last sentence from the above paragraph.

Brandon Jacobs - Total Rushing Yards: Under 29.5 (-115)

In their meeting earlier in the year Jacobs did have a decent game going for 72 yards and TD but Ahmad Bradshaw didn't play. So figure this time around Jacobs' carries will be down to around the 5-8 mark. There is always a chance that Jacobs can get to the linebackers and churn out a few 5-10 yard runs but with Wilfork in the middle, whatever running success the Giants have is going to be on the edges and those yards are going to go to Bradshaw. Any carries I see Jacobs getting are going to be soften up the veteran Patriots DL. Even 7 carries at his season average isn't getting him to 29.5.

Travis Beckum - Total Receptions: Over 1.5 (+115)

For a large part of the year Beckum has been an offensive non-factor. But he has been targeted 7 times over the last 2 games. I love bets like this. They are just fun to root for.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis - Total Rushing Attempts: 13 (even)

Green-Ellis has only reached at least 13 carries in 8 out of 18 games this year. But what I like about this bet for even money is that BGE has never fumbled in his career. In the Super Bowl, I don't see how a guy with that kind of ball security doesn't get a lion's share of the carries. He's their goal line back so he won't lose out on carries there and in the event the Pats are up late trying to salt the clock away that's the guy that's going to get the carries.

Danny Woodhead - Total Receptions: Over 1.5 (even)

I'm going to hold out betting this one until I get a better idea of Gronkowski's status. I have no doubt he's going to play but there is no question he's going to be limited. In Brady's last 3 Super Bowls running backs have caught 18 passes. Granted, Woodhead isn't Kevin Faulk but if any of the RBs are going to be targeted in the passing game it's going to be Woodhead. Like the Beckham prop above, 2 catches seems so easy here.

Live Blogging the UFC of FOX 2 Event Tonight - TRANSCRIPT

Here is the transcript of the live UFC on FOX 2 event:

NFL Championship Weekend Picks

BALTIMORE AT NEW ENGLAND

Line: New England -7

I'm 3-5 in these games. I'm done putting a lot of thought in to them. I'm going with my gut now. Baltimore looked awful last week. New England will put points up on anyone. Baltimore went up there and beat New England in embarrassing fashion two years ago in the playoffs and the Pats can use that as extra motivation. I think alot of pressure has been put on Joe Flacco and I don't think he's the type of QB who will react well to it. I agree with his critics, he's a passenger on this team. I think the Pats go up a few scores and don't take the foot off the Ravens throats until it's 00:00.

The Pick: New England -7

NEW YORK GIANTS at SAN FRANCISCO

Line: San Francisco -2.5

The Giants are peaking at the right time. I throw out all previous games and all previous stats. They don't mean anything at this point. They are a different team now. That doesn't mean I'm not taking San Fran though. As much credit as I give the Giants, there are not many teams in the NFL who wouldn't have beat the last three teams they faced with the way they showed up. I've mentioned Dallas in my Giants/Atlanta write up and I mentioned Atlanta in my Giants/Green Bay write up. This week it's Green Bay. There were at least 14 completions left on the field by Green Bay last week. And I'm talking unforced errors. Rodgers missing guys 25 yards downfield, 8 or 9 drops, etc. It was just a terrible performance. The one thing I like about the 49ers is that they don't throw up clunkers. The Giants are going to get a team's best for the first time in a month. And in that case, I'm taking the home team.

The Pick: San Francisco -2.5

My Awards Season Movie Catch Up - The Ides Of March

I have a weird relationship with movie awards shows. I watch the Golden Globes and The Oscars but I really don't care who wins or loses YET, I find it important to see as many nominated movies as possible before these shows take place.

I used to go to the movies multiple times per week. I now have a 20 month old and have seen 7 movies in the theater since then. So it's been increasingly more difficult. But luckily I was sick this week so I put the kid in daycare and called in to work so I got to see Ides of March.

I'm not a movie critic and I'm going to keep these spoiler free (in case I bump my head and forget I saw it since I'm under the assumption I'm the only one who reads this.) but while the movie was decent it got me asking the question, "Is good acting enough to get a movie in to the Best Picture discussion?" Because honestly the story was nothing special. I've seen plenty of better political dramas. But at the same time I think the cast acted the hell out of it. You want to put Ryan Gosling in the running for Best Actor I'd have no problem with that. Philip Seymour Hoffman and Paul Giamatti were both solid as rival campaign managers and Clooney was Clooney. This movie was able to get a Globe nom because of the two separate best movie categories but I can't see it sneaking in to the top 7 or so Oscar nominations (that's the number I'm hearing with gain enough votes). If it does, like I said, it'll be on the strength of the acting and not the story and I would give it a roughly zero percent chance of winning.

Little side thought: Phillip Seymour Hoffman and Marisa Tomei had a scene together in this movie sitting around the table. Hoffman seems like the consummate professional but as a guy he had to be looking across that table and remembering the last time they worked together, right? That opening scene of When the Devil Knows Your Dead was pretty intense.

And just for the record, so far I've only seen: The Help and Young Adult as far as movies that might have a shot for movie or acting nominations. And I guess Bridesmaids too if you believe some of that hype. My priorities are Moneyball, The Descendants and The Artist in that order.

Alcatraz

I know this is a few days late but Monday night's are busy with The Bachelor and all....

When a new show premieres that looks interesting to me I tell myself it has three episodes to hook me. I'm going to give Alcatraz a little more than that. I'm a big Fringe fan. It's arguably my favorite drama on TV right now. In Fringe's first season they tried a similar formula to what Alcatraz looks like it's going to try. Fringe did a "monster of the week" with a little bit of mythology mixed in from time to time (remember The Pattern?"). Alcatraz looks like it's shaping up no different. It looks like "prisoner of the week" with a little bit of mythology mixed in. Both have sneaky attractive female leads who landed a case at their respective law enforcement agencies and stumbled across something bigger.

Alcatraz has a more accessible premise than Fringe does which will allow it to use it's more procedural aspects more often than Fringe does now. But what I anticipate happening is that once people officially invest in the show and it becomes a part of their Mondays (or season passed on DVR), it will be for the mythology and not the "prisoner of the week" stories. And that's when the show will change for the better for me. And because I trust the people behind Alcatraz I'm willing to wait it out for a little while til that happens.

One issue I have right now though since I always seem to need to have one is why was Alcatraz's story that they transferred to another prison? One place I think they made a mistake was mentioning and then showing a visiting day. That made me start thinking, how are they going to explain to the prisoner's families that they can no longer visit them anymore at their new prison? It would have been cleaner to say they all died via some believable way.

That's really it though. Other than that it's not a terrible way to spend an hour in front of the TV.

2012 NFL Divisional Round Playoff Picks

I know after a 1-3 Wild Card Weekend people have been refreshing this page waiting for my Divisional Round picks.

Here we go:

NEW ORLEANS AT SAN FRANCISCO

Line: New Orleans -4

New Orleans is the sexy team right now. They've averaged over 42 points a game in their last three (all in domes FYI). When people think about the Saints they think 40+ points a game. But look at their point totals on the road: 34, 23, 30, 20, 22, 21(dome), 26(dome), and 42(dome). That's 27.25 points a game (25.8 in outdoor road games). And San Francisco, by the way, scores 27.6 points a game at home and has a top 5 defense. Not it wouldn't shock me if New Orleans won but don't think for a second we're looking at a 42-20 type game. If New Orleans wins it'll be more like 24-20. Have to take the points for the home team.

The Pick: San Francisco +4

DENVER AT NEW ENGLAND

Line: New England -13.5

New England's defense isn't good but I don't think it's as bad as advertised. For some reason they come out flat but if you look close games they were in, they clamped down in the second half. I think Denver will be able to move the ball but ultimately New England will get the 2nd half stops to pull away a little. That being said, much like I thought with the Lions/Saints game last week. I think this is going to be a 10-11 point game that only looked that close because of a garbage touchdown.

The Pick: Denver +13.5

HOUSTON AT BALTIMORE

Line: Baltimore -7.5

This is the toughest game for me to pick. When you think about Baltimore you immediately associate them with defense. Houston is starting a rookie quarterback so it's not out of the realm of possibility that Baltimore could blow Houston out. On the flip side, Houston's defense was actually slightly better that Baltimore and Houston can run the ball as good as anyone. At 7.5 points I'm betting more that we'll be seeing a 14-10 game than a Baltimore double digit win.

The Pick: Houston +7.5

NEW YORK GIANTS AT GREEN BAY

Line: Green Bay -7.5

I really wish this was a 7 point line. It's be alot easier for me to take Green Bay. The Giants are peaking at the right time and 2007 is still fresh in people's minds with the Giants having played Green Bay tightly earlier in the year (a la New England in 07). The Giants will get to Rodgers a few times. He's been sacked 41 times this year. On Chad Millman's blog a good point was raised, a few weeks ago when these two teams played Green Bay was a 7 point favorite in New York. Now it's essentially the same spread six weeks later after Green Bay has had an extra week off to get healthy? I can't take all four dogs...

The Pick: Green Bay -7.5